Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 246
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
The Oklahoma Panhandle
The Texas Panhandle and South Plains
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 335 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms are forming across the South
Plains and additional storms will form and/or move into the
northwest Texas and western Oklahoma Panhandles in the next couple
of hours. Severe outflow winds up to 75 mph with be a threat as the
high-based storms grow upscale into loose clusters and spread
eastward through late evening. Any sustained cells/supercells will
have the potential to produce large hail up to 2 inches in diameter.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north of Guymon
OK to 20 miles southeast of Lubbock TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 245...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Thompson
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 246 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 152035Z - 160300Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20N GUY/GUYMON OK/ - 20SE LBB/LUBBOCK TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /26W LBL - 22SE LBB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
LAT...LON 36969996 33460010 33460305 36960304
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 246 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 246
VALID 160235Z - 160340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW LBB TO
15 N LBB TO 20 E CDS.
..SQUITIERI..05/16/24
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 246
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC101-107-125-269-303-345-160340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS
KING LUBBOCK MOTLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 246
VALID 160120Z - 160240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW LBB
TO 5 E PVW TO 40 SE GUY TO 20 NW LBL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 798
..SQUITIERI..05/16/24
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 246
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-160240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER
$$
TXC045-075-087-101-107-125-129-153-179-191-211-269-295-303-345-
357-393-483-160240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISCOE CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH
COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS
DONLEY FLOYD GRAY
HALL HEMPHILL KING
LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK MOTLEY
OCHILTREE ROBERTS WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.