Mesoscale Discussion 0134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2020
Areas affected...Parts of southwest/south central Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 020416Z - 020645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase across
parts of southwestern into south central Missouri through Midnight-2
AM CST. Some of this may be accompanied by hail and locally strong
surface gusts, but probably mostly below severe criteria.
DISCUSSION...Seasonably modest low-level moisture remains across the
region, ahead of a southeastward advancing cold front, but in the
wake of a couple of short wave perturbations (most readily evident
around 700 mb). One is currently migrating east of the Missouri
Bootheel vicinity of the Mississippi Valley, with another beginning
to shift east of the Missouri Ozarks and southwest Missouri.
However, ahead of the cold front, an area of enhanced lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection persists across eastern Oklahoma into
southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri and northwestern
Arkansas. This appears to be aiding ongoing thunderstorm
development near the Joplin MO area.
The latest NAM and Rapid Refresh continue to suggest that this
activity will gradually increase while spreading across and east of
the Springfield area through 06-08Z, perhaps aided by forcing for
ascent accompanying a high-level (around 250 mb) speed maximum
forecast to propagate through the southern Plains.
Across southwest Missouri, west-southwesterly deep-layer mean wind
fields and shear appear likely to remain modest to weak (20-30 kt or
so). However, mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to
support CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg, with relatively cool
thermodynamic profiles probably supportive of small hail in stronger
convection. If forcing for ascent does become supportive of further
upscale convective growth, cooling in downdrafts due to evaporation
and melting may eventually contribute to some potential for locally
strong surface gusts, mainly east/southeast of Springfield.
Activity in general, though, is expected to remain mostly below
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 37799369 37879223 37599118 36659129 36379200 36319311
36499388 37209465 37799369