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Mesoscale Discussion 134
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MD 134 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0134
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1016 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest/south central Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 020416Z - 020645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase across
   parts of southwestern into south central Missouri through Midnight-2
   AM CST.  Some of this may be accompanied by hail and locally strong
   surface gusts, but probably mostly below severe criteria.

   DISCUSSION...Seasonably modest low-level moisture remains across the
   region, ahead of a southeastward advancing cold front, but in the
   wake of a couple of short wave perturbations (most readily evident
   around 700 mb).  One is currently migrating east of the Missouri
   Bootheel vicinity of the Mississippi Valley, with another beginning
   to shift east of the Missouri Ozarks and southwest Missouri.  

   However, ahead of the cold front, an area of enhanced lower/mid
   tropospheric warm advection persists across eastern Oklahoma into
   southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri and northwestern
   Arkansas.  This appears to be aiding ongoing thunderstorm
   development near the Joplin MO area.  

   The latest NAM and Rapid Refresh continue to suggest that this
   activity will gradually increase while spreading across and east of
   the Springfield area through 06-08Z, perhaps aided by forcing for
   ascent accompanying a high-level (around 250 mb) speed maximum
   forecast to propagate through the southern Plains.

   Across southwest Missouri, west-southwesterly deep-layer mean wind
   fields and shear appear likely to remain modest to weak (20-30 kt or
   so).  However, mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep to
   support CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg, with relatively cool
   thermodynamic profiles probably supportive of small hail in stronger
   convection.  If forcing for ascent does become supportive of further
   upscale convective growth, cooling in downdrafts due to evaporation
   and melting may eventually contribute to some potential for locally
   strong surface gusts, mainly east/southeast of Springfield. 
   Activity in general, though, is expected to remain mostly below
   severe limits.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 03/02/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37799369 37879223 37599118 36659129 36379200 36319311
               36499388 37209465 37799369 

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