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Mesoscale Discussion 166
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0166
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of east-central Mississippi and
   west-central Alabama

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...

   Valid 111929Z - 112100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally
   severe hail continues.

   DISCUSSION...An MCS continues moving southeast around 40 kt across
   the Watch area. Despite the development of mixed-layer CAPE of
   500-1000 J/kg, and little remaining MLCIN, the system remains
   loosely organized with an overall downward trend in convective
   intensity the last few hours. However, with some additional
   destabilization in the boundary layer expected through
   early/mid-afternoon, and deep-layer shear that continues to be
   supportive of convective organization, the potential still exists
   for isolated wind damage and some hail with the strongest cells. As
   the system progresses into southeast MS and southwest AL between
   2100 and 2200 UTC, mid-level lapse rates become prohibitive of MCS
   maintenance and an increase in the weakening trend is expected
   thereafter.

   ..Coniglio/Hart.. 03/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32228891 32888997 33339016 33369016 33419016 33819013
               34158993 34188972 34318816 34298711 33848694 33048687
               33008687 32848687 32498711 32498711 32318741 32228843
               32228858 32228870 32228887 32228891 32228891 

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Page last modified: March 11, 2020
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