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Mesoscale Discussion 168
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0168
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0921 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

   Areas affected...Central MO...Far Southwestern IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121421Z - 121615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms capable of hail will continue
   eastward across central/east-central MO over the next few hours.
   Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over eastern KS
   with a warm from extending eastward from this low into west-central
   MO and then southwestward into south-central MO/north-central AR.
   Thunderstorms have recently developed north of this surface boundary
   amidst strong warm-air advection/isentropic ascent promoted by
   moderate to low/mid-level flow across OK. Recent mesoanalysis
   depicts a 40-45 kt 850mb jet extending across eastern OK into far
   southwest MO. This jet is expected to progress gradually eastward
   over the next few hours just ahead of the mid-level trough also
   progressing eastward. 

   Expectation is for these elevated storms to continue
   eastward/southeastward over the next few hours. Current storm motion
   estimate is east-southeastward at 40-45 kt, taking this cluster to
   MO/IL border by 17Z. Moderate instability (i.e. MUCAPE around 1000
   J/kg) and strong deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 60
   kt) supports organized updrafts. Given the currently elevated storm
   character, primary threat with any organized updrafts for the next
   few hours will be hail. Threat for damaging wind gusts will increase
   with eastern extent as the storms become closer to northward-moving
   warm front. 

   A higher probability for surface-based storms is anticipated farther
   east across southern IL, southern IN, MO boothill, and far western
   KY later this afternoon. This threat will be addressed in later
   outlooks and MDs.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 03/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39119339 39309242 39249106 38768970 37569050 37449208
               38149405 39119339 

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Page last modified: March 12, 2020
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