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Mesoscale Discussion 168
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0168
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0828 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

   Areas affected...Lower Michigan and northern Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 280228Z - 280330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across lower Michigan and
   northern Indiana late this evening. Wind/hail are the primary risks.
   Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued to account for these

   DISCUSSION...High-level diffluent flow is overspreading the central
   Great Lakes this evening ahead of progressive MS Valley short-wave
   trough. Boundary-layer moisture has increased substantially across
   lower MI where mid 50s surface dew points are currently observed.
   While surface-based instability is currently capped, sustained
   ascent/moistening aloft will contribute to substantial, weakly
   inhibited buoyancy by mid evening. Forecast soundings across this
   region suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield MUCAPE in excess
   of 1500 J/kg.

   Convection that developed over northern IL has grown upscale and is
   now a mature MCS as it spreads across the western portion of
   southern Lake MI. Additionally, a well-defined MCV has evolved near
   the lakeshore over eastern Lake County. While it's not entirely
   clear how this complex of storms will be affected as it spreads
   east, sustained low-level warm advection and steep lapse rates
   suggest this activity will likely have longevity as it spreads
   across lake MI into lower MI. While the ongoing storm mode and
   forecast soundings suggest hail/wind will be the primary risks, a
   brief tornado can not be ruled out.

   ..Darrow/Edwards.. 02/28/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42808670 43198441 42308381 41818470 41518676 42808670 

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