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Mesoscale Discussion 184
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0184
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0709 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020

   Areas affected...West Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 50...

   Valid 160009Z - 160245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 50

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat appears likely to continue this
   evening across parts of west Texas. Large hail and wind damage will
   be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough
   moving through the southern Plains with an MCS located near the
   trough in west-central Texas. At the surface, a quasi-stationary
   front is located from far west Texas east-southeastward in the
   southern Texas Hill Country. Thunderstorms are located along and to
   the north of the front from near Mexico border northward to just
   west of San Angelo. A moist airmass is located along and south of
   the front with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. This is contributing
   to moderate instability with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 1000 to
   1500 J/kg range. This combined with strong deep-layer shear, evident
   on the Midland WSR-88D VWP, will support a severe threat this
   evening. Thunderstorms that develop near and to the south of the
   front could obtain supercell characteristics with a threat for large
   hail and wind damage. Cells that develop to the north of the front
   could also produce hail and strong wind gusts. The threat should
   eventually move east-northeastward into western parts of the Texas
   Hill Country by late this evening.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/16/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29100235 29100083 29600046 30620054 31160078 31340157
               31300230 31080263 30230296 29330279 29100235 

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