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Mesoscale Discussion 192
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MD 192 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0192
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

   Areas affected...portions of central and northern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 180707Z - 180900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A semi-organized band of storms continues moving eastward
   across North Texas, where a locally stronger/damaging wind gust
   remains possible.  A new WW is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a linear cluster of
   thunderstorms moving east-northeastward at 35 kt across western
   North Texas.  The storms are moving through an amply unstable warm
   sector (mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg per RAP
   objective analysis), and with flow veering/increasing with height
   across the area yielding around 40 kt deep-layer shear, the
   environment remains supportive of limited/local severe potential.

   In particular, a small bowing feature is observed via KDYX WSR-88D,
   exiting Stephens/entering Palo Pinto counties at this time.  With a
   roughly west-to-east outflow residing from there eastward toward the
   Metroplex, emanating from convection farther north, a zone of
   locally enhanced potential for a stronger wind gust -- or even a
   brief/weak tornado -- is apparent.  At this time, risk appears too
   limited/local to warrant more serious WW consideration, but we will
   continue to monitor the convection as it approaches the Dallas/Fort
   Worth area.

   ..Goss/Edwards.. 03/18/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31149977 32489894 32999824 33059684 32659639 31699736
               31079844 31149977 

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