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Mesoscale Discussion 192
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MD 192 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0192
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0312 PM CST Tue Mar 05 2024

   Areas affected...portions of the central/southern Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 052112Z - 052245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected over the next 1-2
   hours. The strongest storms may produce locally gusty winds and
   small hail.

   DISCUSSION...Modest destabilization has occurred across the
   central/southern FL Peninsula this afternoon amid strong heating and
   mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Effective shear magnitudes around
   30-40 kt will support some storm organization. However, modest
   midlevel lapse rates, along with generally weak instability and
   light winds through 3 km, will likely limit longevity of any
   stronger updrafts. Forecast soundings do indicated elongated
   hodographs above 3 km, so any updraft that can be sustained could
   potential produce small hail given cooler temperatures aloft.
   Otherwise, locally gusty winds may accompany these storms as well.
   Given the overall marginal nature of the environment and expected
   isolated storm coverage, a watch is not expected.

   ..Leitman.. 03/05/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   27358277 27808255 27978187 27828131 27438082 26698044
               25898035 25348043 25238063 25328105 25778149 26268201
               26868252 27358277 

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