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Mesoscale Discussion 203
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MD 203 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0203
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1105 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

   Areas affected...SParts of eastern Oklahoma...northern
   Arkansas...southern Missouri...and adjacent portions of southeastern
   Illinois...western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191605Z - 191800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe weather potential with developing thunderstorm
   activity may remain relatively isolated in the near term, but the
   risk for damaging wind gusts and storms capable of producing
   tornadoes probably will begin to increase toward 2-3 PM.  Trends are
   being monitored for the possibility of one or more tornado watches.

   DISCUSSION...At least a couple of relatively compact clusters of
   thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of central and eastern
   Oklahoma, into portions of the Ozark Plateau.  The westernmost of
   the two, now developing northwest through north of McAlester OK, has
   been the strongest and most organized, and appears aided by forcing
   associated with a subtle mid-level perturbation and associated
   cyclonic vorticity center which will continue to migrate around the
   northwestern periphery of broad mid-level ridging.  

   Based on latest objective analyses, inflow of unstable air to
   maintain the intensity of this activity in the near term is becoming
   more unclear.  However, a gradual destabilization of the boundary
   layer is ongoing along and south of a developing zone of stronger
   differential surface heating, across east central Oklahoma into the
   lower Ohio Valley.  This also appears to coincide with a strong
   southwesterly confluent regime in the 850-700 mb layer,
   characterized by speeds in excess of 50 kt.

   Fluctuations in intensity may continue with the cluster of storms as
   it migrates east-northeastward into the Ozark Plateau through early
   afternoon.  Eventually, though, this activity, and perhaps another
   cluster now spreading east-northeast of the Fayetteville AR area,
   may become better rooted in an increasingly unstable boundary-layer.
    As this occurs, the potential for more substantive intensification
   seems likely, and isolated discrete supercell development might also
   not be out of the question near and to the immediate south.  

   Given the environment, including including a relatively moist
   lower/mid troposphere with mixed-layer CAPE increasing in excess of
   1000 J/kg, along with enlarging low-level hodographs, potential for
   tornadoes may increase, along with increasing potential for strong
   surface gusts.

   ..Kerr/Dial.. 03/19/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35659599 36359544 36719444 37389292 37649123 37848976
               37088841 36128908 35669111 35019385 34649587 35659599 

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