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Mesoscale Discussion 202
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MD 202 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0202
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0903 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

   Areas affected...Southern High Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31...

   Valid 080303Z - 080400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31

   SUMMARY...Scattered convection will linger across mainly the
   northern/central portions of ww31 this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Surface front is gradually advancing south across the
   southern High Plains this evening but convection has not developed
   along this boundary to any degree across northwest OK. Most robust
   convection has gradually weakened, partially due to weaker buoyancy
   due to onset of nocturnal cooling. Additionally, 1km AGL flow has
   gradually veered and this is not particularly advantageous given the
   decreasing instability. 00z sounding from OKC exhibited steep lapse
   rates, but PW values are seasonally low around 3/4". With
   boundary-layer decoupling it may become increasingly difficult to
   maintain organized severe updrafts. While an isolated hail report
   can not be ruled out, overall trends suggest severe threat will
   remain marginal from this point forward.

   ..Darrow.. 03/08/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31070142 36979900 36989700 31079956 31070142 

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