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Mesoscale Discussion 233
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0233
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0758 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

   Areas affected...portions of east-central MO into west-central IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 261258Z - 261430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated storm or two could produce hail this morning
   across east-central MO into west-central IL.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated, elevated convection is developing this
   morning in strong warm advection regime on the nose of a 40+ kt 850
   mb low level jet. While the near-surface layer remains dry, midlevel
   moisture will continue to increase. Furthermore, this area is on the
   edge of a strong EML plume, with midlevel lapse rates around 7.5
   C/km per 12z regional RAOBs. Furthermore, the 12z RAOB from SGF
   shows strong effective shear and enlarged/lengthened hodographs.
   This combination of increasing midlevel moisture and steep midlevel
   lapse rates should result in MUCAPE values as high as 500 J/kg
   spreading east/northeast across MO/IL the next few hours. As such,
   an isolated strong storm capable of small/marginally severe hail is
   possible this morning.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 03/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38578973 38099109 38239151 38769187 39239172 39569101
               39709012 39558952 38928938 38578973 

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Page last modified: March 26, 2020
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