|Mesoscale Discussion 244|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018
Areas affected...much of Arkansas...northern/central Louisiana...and
Concerning...Tornado Watch 40...
Valid 132253Z - 140030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 40 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado Watch 40 continues across the discussion area.
Some uptick of convection on the southeastern periphery of the watch
has been noted and may potentially necessitate local spatial
DISCUSSION...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 40.
Throughout the day, storms have generally struggled to intensify
above severe levels - probably due to lingering mid-level inhibition
and less steep lapse rates compared to areas west (i.e., far western
Arkansas). Latest radar observations/satellite suggests that this
scenario may be gradually changing as insolation/surface heating has
resulted in gradually deepening convection in central/northern
Louisiana an adjacent areas of northeastern Texas. A few of the
cells in northern Louisiana have exhibited weak rotation in the past
30 minutes. Surface temperatures have approached 80F in this area,
supporting moderate instability especially across the southern half
of the WW area. With time, the combination of storms migrating into
the watch area from the west, in addition to storms gradually
increasing in the southern half of the WW, a gradually increasing
low-level jet, and cooling mid-level temperatures will likely result
in an increased threat for all severe hazards into the evening
hours. This includes the potential for a couple of strong
tornadoes. Furthermore, local spatial extensions of WW 40 may be
needed if convection organizes further across central/north-central
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 36559336 36629294 36579169 36529083 36439033 36118996
35689005 34899043 33819094 33069112 32039173 31579191
31019246 30649312 30549394 30619461 30989539 31489573
32299552 32919534 33679510 34239489 34749453 35219414
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