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Mesoscale Discussion 261
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MD 261 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0261
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0141 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2019

   Areas affected...TX South Plains vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 060641Z - 060815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may briefly intensify at times through early
   morning, possibly producing marginally severe hail and strong wind
   gusts. A watch is not anticipated at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated strong to briefly severe stroms will continue
   the next several hours across the TX South Plains/western north TX
   vicinity. Current cells/bowing segments affecting Kent, Stonewall
   and King counties in TX have shown periodic intensification over the
   last hour or so. Brief pulses in MRMS MESH data suggesting hail size
   up to around 1-1.5 inches possible, though most recent trends have
   decreased. Furthermore, velocity data from KLBB has shown moderate
   midlevel rotation at times, further supporting hail potential, and
   possibly a strong to severe gust where  boundary layer inhibition
   may be weak and/or downdrafts briefly intense. 

   This band of strong convection was occurring ahead of a shortwave
   impulse ejecting across southwest TX currently and on the nose of
   stronger southeasterly return flow. Surface dewpoints are maximized
   in this location, though still in the mid 50s to near 60F. Storms
   have been ongoing for several hours and IR satellite indicates a
   maturing MCS over northwest TX with a large area of cold cloud tops
   over the eastern portions of the South Plains. Expect that hail
   concerns should continue to be marginal heading into the early
   morning hours as this system tracks east/northeast toward southwest
   OK and north TX. For this reason, a watch is not expected though
   brief periods of intensification are possible.

   Additional isolated convection is developing further to the
   west/southwest in the vicinity of the surface dryline near the
   higher terrain of southwest TX. This convection is expected to
   remain isolated, though could produce some hail as midlevel lapse
   rates remain intact across this area.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/06/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33739914 34219923 34559945 34689986 34600035 34280080
               33900096 33120181 32510284 32020294 31770291 30690287
               30470243 30520196 31280107 33739914 

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