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Mesoscale Discussion 300
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0300
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1224 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

   Areas affected...Central and eastern Virginia into Maryland and

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281724Z - 281930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with
   a risk for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. A watch may be

   DISCUSSION...1720 UTC satellite and surface obs shows partly cloudy
   skies and temperatures in the 70s F across much of southeastern
   Virginia. To the west and north, greater cloud coverage was noted
   with a line of showers along a pre-frontal trough from south-central
   Virginia into northern Maryland. Gradual destabilization is
   occurring to the east of these showers with SPC mesoanalysis
   indicating 500-100 J/kg of MLCAPE developing associated with
   low-level moist advection of dewpoints in the 60s F. Despite
   increasing cloud cover, slow destabilization should continue through
   the first half of the afternoon from southeastern Virginia northward
   toward the southern Pennsylvania border. 

   Some hi-res guidance suggests a few thunderstorms may evolve out of
   the ongoing shower activity early this afternoon as the pre-frontal
   trough continues eastward. Storms that develop will have the
   potential to produce damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
   given strong low and mid-level flow across much of the Mid Atlantic.
   However, there remains substantial uncertainty on thunderstorm
   initiation early this afternoon given weak destabilization and
   subtle forcing for ascent.  

   A second round of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the
   eastward moving cold front across central Virginia later this
   afternoon. While surface conditions remain much cooler and drier,
   cloud breaks across the region should allow some destabilization
   through the afternoon. Forecast models show veered but elongated
   hodographs supportive of damaging wind gusts with linear storms
   along and ahead of the front later this afternoon and into the early
   evening hours. Trends will be monitored for a possible weather watch
   this afternoon/evening.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 03/28/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36517603 36467725 36527814 36627877 37007910 37587883
               38367832 39187739 39487665 39417575 39337547 39057524
               38697505 38327505 37937519 37337548 36917573 36617588

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