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Mesoscale Discussion 357
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0357
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southern/central MS into west-central
   AL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 106...107...109...

   Valid 122038Z - 122215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 106, 107, 109 continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds, large hail, and
   tornadoes will continue across parts of southern/central MS into
   west-central AL for the next couple of hours. Strong tornadoes still
   appear possible.

   DISCUSSION...Recent 7 and 9 km CAPPI radar imagery suggests that the
   storms across southern/central MS have intensified. It appears that
   the low-level inversion present on the 18Z JAN sounding that may
   have been hampering robust updraft development has eroded. A surface
   warm front has continued to lift northward across parts of central
   into northern AL, with a moderately to strongly unstable airmass
   present to its south across parts of southern/central MS into AL.
   The greatest near-term tornado potential appears to be with a
   supercell currently in Noxubee County MS, and continuing downstream
   into west-central AL. Low-level flow is backed to southeasterly
   along the warm front across this area, with latest mesoanalysis
   estimating effective SRH now exceeds 500 m2/s2. A strong tornado may
   occur with this supercell given the very strong low-level shear in
   the presence of a supercell. Otherwise, all severe hazards remain
   possible for the next couple of hours along and downstream of
   ongoing convection across southern/central MS. Another strong
   tornado also appears possible with a supercell moving from Pike into
   Walthall County in southern MS.

   ..Gleason.. 04/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31039058 31979085 32798972 32998912 33388863 34008825
               33998738 33648713 33258699 32178867 31188962 31039058 

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Page last modified: April 12, 2020
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