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Mesoscale Discussion 361
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MD 361 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0361
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0444 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

   Areas affected...western/central Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 122144Z - 122345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection across far eastern Oklahoma may pose an
   isolated hail/wind risk while migrating eastward into the discussion
   area.  A WW issuance is being considered.

   DISCUSSION...A broken band of convection is migrating eastward in
   areas in/north of WW 108.  These storms are in an environment
   characterized by modest low-level shear, but steep midlevel lapse
   rates and lift associated with an approaching shortwave trough just
   west of the storms.  Abundant deep shear is also present owing to
   fast flow aloft.  The expectation is that mainly outflow-dominant
   storms capable of wind and hail will migrate eastward into the
   discussion area, with instability being maintained mainly via
   cooling aloft associated with the approaching trough.

   This scenario is being monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch issuance.

   ..Cook/Hart.. 04/12/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36439465 36659384 36489301 36129213 35549161 34579157
               33749168 33139205 33019298 33339370 34269432 35239459
               35779475 36439465 

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