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Mesoscale Discussion 385
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0385
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0435 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of West/Northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 082135Z - 082330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large to very large hail (2-4 inches
   in diameter) are expected this evening, with convective initiation
   after 22z. Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show a steady increase in
   agitated cumulus development within a north-south oriented corridor
   across portions of West Texas. These trends are coincident with a
   southerly influx of richer low-level moisture across this region,
   characterized by surface dew point temperatures in the mid-to
   upper-50s F, beneath cooler mid-level temperatures with northward
   extent. Meanwhile, temperatures have risen into the upper 70s F amid
   strong heating, yielding 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. SPC mesoanalysis
   shows CIN has mostly eroded across the region in the last hour,
   indicating convective initiation may be imminent.

   The plume of richer low-level moisture is expected to continue
   advancing northward and impinge upon a diffuse cold front positioned
   across parts of Northwest Texas. The combined effects of surface
   convergence/heating will allow further destabilization and erosion
   of the cap after 22z, with scattered thunderstorms expected
   thereafter. Strong deep-layer shear and elongated/straight
   hodographs should yield discrete supercells, with large to very
   large hail (2-4 inches in diameter) the primary hazard initially.
   Relatively weak low-level shear is expected to limit the initial
   tornado potential, but as the low-level jet increases into the early
   evening hours, the tornado potential may increase if storms can
   remain discrete.

   ..Karstens/Bentley/Hart.. 04/08/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30710081 30800165 32010196 32980225 33880102 33869956
               33549869 33219844 32669805 31999836 31549955 31369989
               30860030 30710081 

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