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Mesoscale Discussion 385
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MD 385 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0385
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0113 AM CDT Fri May 11 2018

   Areas affected...Southeast NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 110613Z - 110745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for a possible downstream watch
   over portions of southeastern NE.

   DISCUSSION...Organized MCS continues to progress across at around
   35-40 kt. Severe wind gusts have been measured over the past hours,
   the strongest of which was 78 mph in Kearney country. Strong to
   severe winds gusts are expected to continue for at least the next
   hour or so as the MCS approaches the edge of Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 81. Echo tops have decreased slightly over the past 15 mins
   and the overall thermodynamic environment does not appear favorable
   for continued persistence of the current MCS intensity. KUEX radar
   imagery also clearly shows the outflow out ahead of the stronger
   convection. That being said, the well-organized nature of the system
   coupled with continued warm-air advection across the frontal zone
   draped across region may compensate for the marginal thermodynamics.
   Additionally, stationary front across the region will likely enhance
   the potential for strong to severe gusts in its vicinity. Trends
   will be monitored closely over the next hour and a downstream watch
   may be needed over portions of southeastern NE if severe gusts

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 05/11/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40969735 41219737 41399714 41489681 41479654 41409624
               41149602 40659589 40349586 40059627 40139723 40399739

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