Click-to-scroll-up Image
Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 395
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 395 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0395
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0848 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of central/east TX into northwestern LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 091348Z - 091545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A watch may be needed as the threat for tornadoes, large
   hail, and damaging winds gradually increases this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Warm advection associated with a 35-45 kt southerly
   low-level jet, along with ascent attendant to the left exit region
   of a southwesterly mid/upper-level jet, is aiding convection across
   parts of central/east TX into northwestern LA. Some of this activity
   across central TX is occurring near a convectively reinforced
   outflow boundary, with a rich low-level airmass present along/south
   of this boundary. Steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting
   1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in central TX, even though daytime heating
   remains muted thus far, with lesser instability into east TX and
   northwestern LA. Still, strong deep-layer shear of 50+ kt will
   foster updraft organization and supercell potential. Large to very
   large hail will be a concern with these supercells as they spread
   east-northeastward this morning. An increasing potential for
   severe/damaging winds may be realized if a cluster forms along the
   outflow boundary/front. Sufficient low-level shear is also present
   for low-level updraft rotation and some tornado threat. Watch
   issuance may be needed if convection continues to increase in
   coverage and intensity across central TX.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/09/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30029806 30829766 31659640 31939477 32179397 32159343
               31369333 30959394 29939603 29559685 29579786 30029806 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: April 19, 2024
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities