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Mesoscale Discussion 395
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0395
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021

   Areas affected...portions of the FL Panhandle and northern FL
   Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 172043Z - 172245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase across the
   northeast Gulf of Mexico and move across portions of the FL
   Panhandle and northwest FL peninsula through this evening.  An
   isolated stronger storm may produce strong wind gusts and perhaps
   hail, but a watch is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
   across the northeast Gulf of Mexico and portions of the FL
   Panhandle/northern FL peninsula in the vicinity of a nearly
   stationary front. Modest warm advection combined with ascent
   associated within the right entrance region of an approaching 300-mb
   speed maxima will contribute to the thunderstorm development, with
   storms moving east across the discussion area through this evening.
   The front should begin to lift slowly north tonight and, despite
   poor mid-level lapse rates, RAP forecast soundings depict MUCAPE
   averaging 500 to locally 1000 J/kg this afternoon/evening. Strong
   westerly mid-level flow will contribute to ample shear for organized
   storms. As storms develop/move east over the next several hours the
   potential will exist for a couple of storms to produce strong
   surface wind gusts and perhaps hail. Any sustained storm in the
   vicinity of the front across the northern peninsula this evening
   would have at least some potential for a tornado given
   modestly-enhanced low-level SRH.

   The expected severe coverage should remain isolated and a watch is
   not anticipated.

   ..Bunting/Dial.. 04/17/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29388483 29458561 29658604 30238617 30468544 30458379
               30408306 30258196 29568175 29178220 29038328 29388483 

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Page last modified: April 17, 2021
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