Mesoscale Discussion 0454
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

   Areas affected...parts of swrn into s cntrl KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162049Z - 162315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two may evolve from initially
   high-based thunderstorm development by 6-7 PM CDT, posing primarily
   a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts.

   DISCUSSION...As boundary-layer heating and mixing continues,
   deepening high-based convective development is ongoing in a corridor
   near/north of the Raton Mesa vicinity into southwestern Kansas. 
   This appears focused downstream of a weak mid-level perturbation,
   which is progressing toward the crest of large-scale mid-level
   ridging across the southern Rockies through southern Great Plains. 
   With continuing insolation, this convective development is likely to
   persist and gradually spread northeastward and eastward with the
   supporting large-scale forcing for ascent.  

   Strongest boundary-layer heating appears focused northwest of the
   Dalhart TX toward Dodge City KS vicinity, where surface dew points
   remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s F.  However, more substantive
   moistening is ongoing farther east, including a corridor across the
   Medicine Lodge toward Great Bend KS vicinities, where dew points may
   continue to increase into and through the lower mid 50s F, as
   southerly low-level flow strengthens through 23-00Z.  It appears
   that this may contribute mixed-layer CAPE increasing to the order of
   1000 J/kg.

   In the presence of lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, the
   boundary-layer destabilization may largely remain suppressed by
   warming, elevated mixed-layer air.  However, the eventual
   intensification of initially high-based convection overspreading the
   region appears at least possible later this afternoon, particularly
   near/east of the Dodge City vicinity, aided by inflow of the
   potentially more unstable air.  If this becomes sustained, shear
   beneath moderate to strong westerly mid/upper flow appears more than
   sufficient to support the evolution an isolated boundary-layer based
   supercell or two, primarily posing a risk for severe hail and
   locally strong surface gusts.

   ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38120106 38779896 38019788 37259826 37080128 38120106 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN