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Mesoscale Discussion 459
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0459
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1143 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

   Areas affected...eastern Nebraska...western Iowa...and far
   southeastern South Dakota.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 161643Z - 161815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado watch may be needed in the next 1 to 2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Skies have cleared across eastern Nebraska and western
   Iowa over the last hour with rapid destabilization underway. SPC
   mesoanalysis shows around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the region which
   may increase to around 1500 J/kg within the next 1 to 2 hours.
   However, the dry slot is punching into this area which will dry the
   atmosphere from the south. The window for sufficient instability
   will therefore be somewhat narrow. However, rapidly cooling
   temperatures aloft and the moderate instability should support at
   least some hail and tornado threat this afternoon.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/16/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41389703 41489762 41619772 41879767 42219765 42459745
               42959692 43339619 43409527 43249467 42199455 41339499
               41339607 41389703 

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