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Mesoscale Discussion 505
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0505
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

   Areas affected...Far southeast FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221623Z - 221800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginally severe storm with hail up to around 1.25
   inches in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph will be possible over
   the greater Miami metro area during the next 2-3 hours. A watch is
   not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A southward-sagging cold front extends from Palm Beach
   to mainland Monroe counties as of 16Z. Surface temperatures ahead of
   it across the remaining portion of the peninsula have warmed into
   the mid 80s F while dew points have mixed into the upper 60s. This
   is supporting moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg. A
   recent increase in agitated CU and small CBs along it suggest that a
   storm or two may develop despite the prevailing westerly low-level
   wind profile. 25-30 kt effective bulk shear, primarily driven by an
   increase in speed with height, should be sufficient for a marginal
   severe threat. With 500-mb temperatures near -11 C, hail magnitudes
   from 0.75-1.25 inches, along with locally strong wind gusts of 45-60
   mph should be the expected hazards.

   ..Grams/Smith.. 04/22/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   26028042 26258018 26217997 25608005 25428019 25448042
               25758049 26028042 

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