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Mesoscale Discussion 622
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0622
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0828 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

   Areas affected...Southwest Kansas into northwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180...

   Valid 040128Z - 040330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180

   SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible even as
   storms may tend to become elevated later into the evening.

   DISCUSSION...KVNX/KDDC VAD profiles show an increase in the
   low-level jet. The 00Z observed DDC sounding showed very steep
   mid-level lapse rates though some capping was also present. Current
   convection in WW 180 is expected to continue eastward with aid from
   the low-level jet. The primary severe risk will exist with a storm
   near the Wichita/Kearney County line. This storm will be capable of
   hail up to 1.5-2 in. A line of storms is also moving east from near
   Garden City to just west of Beaver, OK. This line has shown some
   deepening cores on MRMS CAPPI and could produce severe wind gusts.
   The overall eastern extent of the severe risk is not clear. However,
   even as storms may become elevated with time, large hail and
   isolated damaging winds could still occur. The tornado risk is
   conditional on a discrete storm mode and should continue to diminish
   as low-level stability increases. Some areal extension of WW 180
   could be needed depending on convective trends over the next 2

   ..Wendt.. 05/04/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38680144 39000081 38999910 38689893 38069879 38049879
               37999879 37279897 36849950 36660018 36540079 36620141
               36700160 38680144 

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