Mesoscale Discussion 0622
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Mon May 02 2022
Areas affected...Portions of OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 021830Z - 022030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat will rapidly increase this afternoon.
Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, significant damaging
winds, and very large hail all appear likely. Tornado Watch issuance
will be needed by 20Z (3 PM CDT).
DISCUSSION...A surface low is present over southwestern KS at 1830Z,
with a dryline extending southward from the low across the far
eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. An effective warm
front/outflow boundary from earlier convection extends southeastward
from the surface low into northwestern and central OK. Surface
temperatures have generally warmed into the 70s and low 80s
along/south of this boundary, with dewpoints increasing into the low
to mid 60s. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to initiate
along the dryline across northwestern OK by 20Z (3 PM CDT), as
forcing for ascent associated with a shortwave trough over the
central High Plains overspreads the warm sector.
Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overlying the moist
low-level airmass and continued diurnal heating will likely support
moderate to strong instability by late afternoon, with MLCAPE
ranging from around 2000-3000+ J/kg. Veering/strengthening wind
profiles with height through mid levels will easily support
supercells with initial development off the dryline. Effective SRH
of 200-250+ m2/s2 this afternoon will foster low-level rotation with
any thunderstorms that develop, with a corresponding threat for
tornadoes. Some of the tornadoes could be strong given the rather
favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, especially along
the effective warm front/outflow boundary from earlier convection.
Very large hail will also be possible with any supercells that can
persist and remain at least semi-discrete.
The most probable area for initiation will be close to the surface
triple point in northwestern OK, where the cu field is already
becoming agitated. Most high-resolution guidance continues to
suggest one or more intense supercells will form across this region
and spread eastward into north-central OK this afternoon and early
evening. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will likely be
associated with this activity. The potential for additional
convective development farther south along the dryline across
west-central OK remains unclear, as the better forcing associated
with the compact shortwave trough and mid-level jet should remain
focused along/near the OK/KS border area. Still, if a thunderstorm
or two can form farther south, they would likely become severe
quickly while also posing a threat for tornadoes and very large
The supercells across north-central OK should grow upscale into a
bowing squall line this evening, with a continued threat for
embedded tornadoes and significant severe/damaging winds as
convection spreads east-southeastward into central/eastern OK.
Tornado Watch issuance will be needed by 20Z (3 PM CDT), as
convective initiation across northwestern OK appears likely by this
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 35969950 36369954 36919913 36979865 36979679 36959620
36949574 36849512 36419489 35999516 35689548 35429584
35089638 34839720 34879816 35239880 35729934 35969950