|Mesoscale Discussion 622|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0622
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 02 2018
Areas affected...southwest IA...southeast NE...northeast
KS...northwest and west-central MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 020550Z - 020645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-70 mph) are
possible over the next hour. The coverage of higher gusts will
probably diminish gradually as the gust front becomes increasingly
removed from the convective cores.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an extensive squall line from
south-central NE east to the Omaha vicinity and arcing north into
western IA. Surface analysis shows a warm frontal zone over the
lower to middle MO Valley and the richer low-level moisture is
primarily located to the west of the MO River. As such, the airmass
has been slower to cool over northeast KS and near the MO/KS border
compared to south-central IA and northern MO. A relatively sharp
gradient in buoyancy is denoted on objective analysis with a very
unstable boundary layer located near and west of the MO River. KTQE
and KSUX observed 58kt and 52kt gusts, respectively between 0430Z
and 0500Z. Farther south, observing sites recorded gusts around
40kt in Omaha and Hastings.
KTWX and KEAX VAD data show a 40kt southerly LLJ. The warm
advection regime will aid in a strong system-relative mass flux as
the squall line moves to the southeast over the next several hours.
Isolated strong to locally severe gusts are possible.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38779616 39889709 40619713 40829609 41659563 41239480
38759360 38259415 38189539 38779616
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