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Mesoscale Discussion 622
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0622
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0130 PM CDT Mon May 02 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 021830Z - 022030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat will rapidly increase this afternoon.
   Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, significant damaging
   winds, and very large hail all appear likely. Tornado Watch issuance
   will be needed by 20Z (3 PM CDT).

   DISCUSSION...A surface low is present over southwestern KS at 1830Z,
   with a dryline extending southward from the low across the far
   eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. An effective warm
   front/outflow boundary from earlier convection extends southeastward
   from the surface low into northwestern and central OK. Surface
   temperatures have generally warmed into the 70s and low 80s
   along/south of this boundary, with dewpoints increasing into the low
   to mid 60s. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to initiate
   along the dryline across northwestern OK by 20Z (3 PM CDT), as
   forcing for ascent associated with a shortwave trough over the
   central High Plains overspreads the warm sector.

   Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overlying the moist
   low-level airmass and continued diurnal heating will likely support
   moderate to strong instability by late afternoon, with MLCAPE
   ranging from around 2000-3000+ J/kg. Veering/strengthening wind
   profiles with height through mid levels will easily support
   supercells with initial development off the dryline. Effective SRH
   of 200-250+ m2/s2 this afternoon will foster low-level rotation with
   any thunderstorms that develop, with a corresponding threat for
   tornadoes. Some of the tornadoes could be strong given the rather
   favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, especially along
   the effective warm front/outflow boundary from earlier convection.
   Very large hail will also be possible with any supercells that can
   persist and remain at least semi-discrete.

   The most probable area for initiation will be close to the surface
   triple point in northwestern OK, where the cu field is already
   becoming agitated. Most high-resolution guidance continues to
   suggest one or more intense supercells will form across this region
   and spread eastward into north-central OK this afternoon and early
   evening. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will likely be
   associated with this activity. The potential for additional
   convective development farther south along the dryline across
   west-central OK remains unclear, as the better forcing associated
   with the compact shortwave trough and mid-level jet should remain
   focused along/near the OK/KS border area. Still, if a thunderstorm
   or two can form farther south, they would likely become severe
   quickly while also posing a threat for tornadoes and very large

   The supercells across north-central OK should grow upscale into a
   bowing squall line this evening, with a continued threat for
   embedded tornadoes and significant severe/damaging winds as
   convection spreads east-southeastward into central/eastern OK.
   Tornado Watch issuance will be needed by 20Z (3 PM CDT), as
   convective initiation across northwestern OK appears likely by this

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/02/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35969950 36369954 36919913 36979865 36979679 36959620
               36949574 36849512 36419489 35999516 35689548 35429584
               35089638 34839720 34879816 35239880 35729934 35969950 

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