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Mesoscale Discussion 622
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0622
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 02 2018

   Areas affected...southwest IA...southeast NE...northeast
   KS...northwest and west-central MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 020550Z - 020645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-70 mph) are
   possible over the next hour.  The coverage of higher gusts will
   probably diminish gradually as the gust front becomes increasingly
   removed from the convective cores.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an extensive squall line from
   south-central NE east to the Omaha vicinity and arcing north into
   western IA.  Surface analysis shows a warm frontal zone over the
   lower to middle MO Valley and the richer low-level moisture is
   primarily located to the west of the MO River.  As such, the airmass
   has been slower to cool over northeast KS and near the MO/KS border
   compared to south-central IA and northern MO.  A relatively sharp
   gradient in buoyancy is denoted on objective analysis with a very
   unstable boundary layer located near and west of the MO River.  KTQE
   and KSUX observed 58kt and 52kt gusts, respectively between 0430Z
   and 0500Z.  Farther south, observing sites recorded gusts around
   40kt in Omaha and Hastings.

   KTWX and KEAX VAD data show a 40kt southerly LLJ.  The warm
   advection regime will aid in a strong system-relative mass flux as
   the squall line moves to the southeast over the next several hours. 
   Isolated strong to locally severe gusts are possible.

   ..Smith/Edwards.. 06/02/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38779616 39889709 40619713 40829609 41659563 41239480
               38759360 38259415 38189539 38779616 

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Page last modified: June 02, 2018
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