Click-to-scroll-up Image
Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 647
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 647 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0647
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1057 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024

   Areas affected...northwest/north-central KS and south-central NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 061557Z - 061800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...An arc of severe thunderstorms should develop by early
   afternoon along the composite cold front/dryline. Tornadoes, large
   hail, and severe wind gusts are expected with a midday tornado watch

   DISCUSSION...15Z surface analysis placed the composite cold
   front/dryline across southwest NE into far western KS. A lobe of
   large-scale ascent indicated by a patch of upper-level cirrus along
   the KS/CO border will rapidly spread northeast and likely aid in
   convective development along the KS/NE border area during the next
   few hours. A plume of at least moderate buoyancy is already present,
   with earlier MLCIN noted in 12Z LBF/DDC soundings waning.
   Enlarged/elongated hodographs will favor supercell structures,
   especially with southern extent where a couple strong tornadoes will
   be possible. Linear frontal forcing and potential for pinching of
   the northeast portion of the surface-based buoyancy plume should
   yield greater potential for upscale growth earlier with northern
   extent. A mix of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind gusts is

   ..Grams/Smith.. 05/06/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39220046 40650055 41430064 41860013 41919910 41219818
               40069774 39069768 38519826 38269914 38170010 38680039

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: May 27, 2024
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities