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Mesoscale Discussion 715
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0715
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0631 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

   Areas affected...Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122331Z - 130200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this evening, with
   large hail the primary threat.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasing CU across
   northwest IA near a developing cold front where temperatures have
   risen into the lower 80s F. While convergence will remain weak, it
   may be sufficient to initiate isolated storms over the next few
   hours as height falls with the shortwave trough to the north grazes
   the area. A secondary/weak boundary also stretches from east-central
   IA into IL, and this may be a preferred corridor for storms to track
   along. Straight hodographs as well as the isolated nature of the
   potential storms support hail as a primary threat. The lack of any
   appreciable low-level jet/advection should limit any organized
   severe threat.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 06/12/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42349494 42799519 43029466 43219418 43419377 43129294
               42779215 42309114 41719102 41339125 41259189 41549295
               42009416 42349494 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2018
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