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Mesoscale Discussion 801
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0801
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1026 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

   Areas of central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 161526Z - 161800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will likely increase in coverage and intensity over
   the next several hours, with damaging wind and areas of hail.

   DISCUSSION...Widespread rain and storms currently exist along and
   north of an outflow boundary, extending from just south of the MAF
   to SJT area and curling into northeastern TX. Surface observations
   indicate the outflow continues to push south, resulting in an
   undercutting action to the existing convection. 

   As of 15Z, the most notable area of storms was just northeast of
   SJT. This convection may be developing into a small MCS, with
   northern portions clearly elevated and additional development
   occurring along the southern flank. These storms may continue to
   grow upscale, ingesting the very moist and unstable air, and
   translating east/southeast along the cold front/outflow. 

   Additional storms are also developing just southwest of SJT, where
   robust moisture has pushed westward beneath slightly cooler
   temperatures aloft with less capping.  The deepening boundary layer
   should generally reduce CIN through the day, with the end result
   increasing coverage of strong to severe storms. Damaging winds will
   be the primary threat, although large hail may occur with the more
   discrete storms before they merge into an MCS.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 05/16/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30139882 30140099 30300133 30610140 30970127 31110115
               31400087 31769972 31879902 32109770 32239695 31949646
               31469627 31069646 30769679 30669697 30469745 30139882 

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