Mesoscale Discussion 0804
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0325 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

   Areas affected...northern Arkansas...south eastern
   Missouri...southern Illinois...far western Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162025Z - 162230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Marginal wind and hail risk through the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in
   coverage this afternoon and evening across portions of the Ozarks to
   the middle Mississippi Valley. A few more organized clusters and a
   supercell or two may be possible as forcing increases from a
   mid-level speed max moves across this region later in the evening
   amid  MLCAPE increasing to around 1000-1500 J/kg. A few instances of
   severe hail and damaging wind will be possible. A watch is unlikely
   to be needed, as this threat will remain isolated.

   ..Thornton/Thompson.. 05/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36659306 37139222 37939057 38098894 37728808 36998802
               36698829 36228917 35639031 35439115 35309232 35389291
               35669359 36319334 36659306