STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 S UIN 25 ENE VIH 10 E SGF 25 N MLC 40 E FSI 35 E CSM 35 NNW END
30 SW HUT 15 S TOP 25 ESE IRK 50 S UIN.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SSW CRE 35 ESE SPA 40 NW CHA MEM 10 ENE HOT 40 NE DAL 25 SW SEP
40 NE SJT 45 W ABI 50 SSE CDS 30 NNE GAG 25 NNE GCK 20 NE LAA
25 E COS 15 NE FCL 20 NE SNY 30 S BBW 30 NE OMA 40 NNW DBQ
35 NNE LSE 35 SW RHI 20 SE HTL 20 E ERI 25 SSW ACY.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE MOT 45 SE MOT
45 NNW ABR 60 NNE ATY 35 NE AXN 35 NE DLH 25 NNE CMX 85 ENE MQT
50 ENE OSC 45 WNW BUF 15 ESE IPT 15 ENE ACY ...CONT... 25 SSW CHS
35 ESE AND 20 W CHA 30 SE HOT 35 E DAL 45 ESE BWD 10 SSW JCT
65 N DRT 60 SE MAF 50 NE BGS CDS 20 NW GAG GCK 25 SSW LAA
25 SSW COS 35 W MLF 55 ESE TPH 25 NNW BIH 45 ENE SCK 30 WSW MHS
CLM ...CONT... 30 NNW 63S 25 W PUW 55 SE BKE 60 SSW BOI 10 WNW TWF
PIH 30 SSE WEY 30 ESE LVM 35 NNE LWT 35 NNE HVR.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 15 SSW PBI
25 NW MIA 30 E FMY 25 ENE SRQ 45 WNW ORL DAB.
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE NNEWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER JET WILL APPROACH THE SRN PLAINS BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT
FROM NC WNWWD TO A SURFACE LOW IN ERN NEB WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WRN PORTION OF FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER ERN NEB THROUGH CNTRL/SWRN KS AND INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE SHOULD BEGIN TO RETREAT NWD FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MOVE
LITTLE OR MAY RETREAT WWD A LITTLE AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM SWRN KS
THROUGH WRN OK AND WRN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.
...OK/KS/SERN NEB THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE
WARM SECTOR SHOULD BECOME VERY UNSTABLE IN THIS REGION WITH MLCAPES
FROM 3500 TO 4500 J/KG LIKELY AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PRESENCE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND WARMING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE WARM SECTOR
CAPPED MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...SOME HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD OCCUR BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
JET SPREADS EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
STRONG SURFACE HEATING SHOULD HELP WEAKEN THE CAP. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL OK
NWD INTO PARTS OF S CNTRL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD ENEWD. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS TOWARD EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS. GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHER
STORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER NWD INTO KS AND MO ALONG SURFACE FRONT.
SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ALONG/N OF THE SURFACE FRONT FROM ERN KS INTO
SERN NEB AND MO AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING THE EVENING.
...OH VALLEY AREA/GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY IN ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION ALONG/N OF THE WARM FRONT FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY
THROUGH GREAT LAKES. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER S DURING
THE DAY ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS STORMS INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET.
...TX...
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG TX PORTION OF THE DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CAP IN THIS REGION SUGGESTS THREAT
IN THIS AREA IS MORE CONDITIONAL.
...NERN CO...
SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP IN MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER NERN CO. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH
AND ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP EWD INTO PARTS OF NWRN KS OVERNIGHT.
..DIAL.. 05/09/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
|