SPC AC 060034
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0734 PM CDT WED MAY 05 2004
   
   VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE ECG 45 WSW ECG
   20 E RIC NHK ILG ABE POU 30 N BDR 10 NE BID.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE DTW GRR MKE
   DBQ 30 WNW BRL 10 E LWD 10 NE BIE SLN RSL HLC MCK 20 N LBF 35 WSW
   MHN BFF 50 E DGW 15 ENE RAP 10 NNW REJ MLS 10 SW SDY 45 ENE ISN 65 N
   DVL.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID
   ATLANTIC COAST STATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
   THIS EVENING.  STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS BEGINNING
   TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF COASTAL AREAS...JUST AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH
   AXIS.  BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
   UPPER FEATURE SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
   LOW/MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH TOPPING CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS RIDGE AXIS...APPEARS TO
   BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
   NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH BASED ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH 02-03Z
   TIME FRAME...BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING.
   
   NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS
   PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF ALBERTA...
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE
   BASED AROUND 700 MB...WHERE MODELS SUGGEST LIFTED PARCELS WILL
   POSSESS CAPE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR SO.  THIS IS EXPECTED
   TO MINIMIZE HAIL THREAT...DESPITE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE SHEAR IN
   CLOUD BEARING LAYER.
   
   ...MID MO VALLEY INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   ANOTHER MORE FOCUSED AREA OF NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
   POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT FROM NEAR THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
   EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN IOWA...POSSIBLY SOUTHERN
   MINNESOTA.  NOSE OF 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET...EAST OF NEBRASKA
   THERMAL SURFACE LOW...WILL PROVIDE LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ACTIVITY. 
   SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. 
   HOWEVER...TOWARD 06/12Z...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT ALONG THE EASTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA
   BORDER...BETWEEN ZONAL UPPER JET ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AND
   UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.  THIS COULD ENHANCE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
   FIELD SUFFICIENTLY TO WEAKEN INHIBITION.  IF ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...
   RISK OF HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED AND
   STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/06/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z