SPC AC 250834
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 AM CST THU MAR 25 2004
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
   MRF 30 NW INK 50 ESE TCC 40 W GCK 25 SSE CDR 40 SE 4BQ 65 NNW REJ 15
   NNW ABR 25 SSW YKN 40 SSE OMA 35 WNW HUT 30 S GAG 50 WSW BWD DRT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE ECG 40 WNW GSO
   15 WSW OWB 40 ESE FYV FTW 40 E JCT 55 WSW COT ...CONT... 75 WNW MRF
   15 ENE CNM 15 SSE CAO 10 W LAA 20 NNW PUB 50 SW ALS 25 WNW GCN 20
   SSW P38 30 SSE ENV 20 NNE OWY 70 NNE BOI 60 NNE FCA ...CONT... 15 NE
   INL 40 WSW DLH 45 WSW EAU 30 S LNR 25 E JVL 35 NW TVC 25 ENE ANJ
   ...CONT... 35 N ART 15 SSW GON.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI 25 NNE SEA
   40 S OLM 25 SSW AST.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW SRQ 30 NNW
   MLB.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN PTNS OF THE PLNS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE WA/ORE CST EXPECTED TO SWEEP INLAND AS A
   STRONG OPEN WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HRS...RESULTING IN BACKING
   UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLNS.  FARTHER S...EXPECT THAT
   UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN MORE ZONAL AS SRN STREAM JET MAX PROGRESSES E
   FROM OFF THE SRN CA CST TO NRN MEXICO/SW TEXAS.
   
   AT LOWER LEVELS...LEE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH WRN UPPER TROUGH...
   LIKELY TO BE OVER SRN MT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD
   MOVE/REDEVELOP SE INTO ERN WY/WRN NEB FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A NEW
   CENTER CONSOLIDATES AND LIFTS NE INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS LATER IN THE
   PERIOD.
   
   ...WRN PTNS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS...
   EXISTING LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF DIURNALLY-
   ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY INVOF SURFACE WAVE
   OVER WRN NEB/SW SD.  GIVEN AVAILABILITY OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW /SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S/ AND LIKELIHOOD FOR MODERATE TO STRONG
   SURFACE HEATING...MLCAPE OVER REGION SHOULD AVERAGE AOA 1500 J/KG.
   
   UPPER FLOW WILL BACK WITH TIME AND STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH SRN TROUGH WILL ARRIVE AFTER MAX HEATING TIME AND/OR
   PASS N AND W OF INSTABILITY AXIS.  BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
   HEATING AND POSSIBLY UPLIFT ALONG THE BLACK HILLS SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS.  DEEP SHEAR OF
   35-40 KT SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED ACTIVITY/SUPERCELLS. 
   THERMODYNAMIC SETUP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL.  BUT A
   LIMITED THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP FOR TORNADOES AS CELLS CROSS NW/SE
   ORIENTED WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT N ACROSS REGION.
   
   INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE INFLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN TROUGH
   SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
   ONE OR MORE ELEVATED MCSS POSSIBLY AFFECTING ERN PARTS OF NEB AND
   THE DAKOTAS.
   
   ...WRN PTNS OF THE SRN PLNS...
   ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG DRY
   LINE/LEE TROUGH FROM WRN KS SWD INTO SW TX.  SOME SIGNAL EXISTS IN
   BOTH SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA THAT A SRN STREAM UPPER IMPULSE WILL
   APPROACH  THE TX PANHANDLE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.  FAIRLY RICH
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE /SSELY/ COMPONENT TO LOW
   LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   MAYBE A TORNADO OR TWO.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 03/25/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z