SEL5
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 15
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
          COASTAL WATERS
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1250 AM UNTIL 600 AM EST.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
   TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
   OCALA FLORIDA TO 50 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
   WATCH NUMBER 14. WATCH NUMBER 14 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1250
   AM EST. 
   
   DISCUSSION...THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
   DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS
   CENTRAL FL.  VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH A MOIST AND
   MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUPPORT STORMS OVER NERN GULF WILL BE A
   CONCERN AS THEY MOVE INLAND ACROSS FL VICINITY E/W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
   GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
   MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.
   
   
   ...HALES

   SEL5
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 15
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
          COASTAL WATERS
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1250 AM UNTIL 600 AM EST.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
   TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
   OCALA FLORIDA TO 50 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
   WATCH NUMBER 14. WATCH NUMBER 14 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1250
   AM EST. 
   
   DISCUSSION...THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
   DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS
   CENTRAL FL.  VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH A MOIST AND
   MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUPPORT STORMS OVER NERN GULF WILL BE A
   CONCERN AS THEY MOVE INLAND ACROSS FL VICINITY E/W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
   GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
   MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.
   
   
   ...HALES

   WOUS64 KWNS 020548
   WOU5
   
   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 15
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007
   
   TORNADO WATCH 15 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM EST FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   FLC009-017-035-053-069-075-083-095-101-107-117-119-127-021100-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0015.070202T0550Z-070202T1100Z/
   
   FL 
   .    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   BREVARD              CITRUS              FLAGLER             
   HERNANDO             LAKE                LEVY                
   MARION               ORANGE              PASCO               
   PUTNAM               SEMINOLE            SUMTER              
   VOLUSIA              
   
   
   AMZ454-550-GMZ850-021100-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0015.070202T0550Z-070202T1100Z/
   
   CW 
   
   .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
   
   COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM 
   
   COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM 
   
   COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM 
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
   
   
   

   SAW5 
   WW 15 TORNADO FL CW 020550Z - 021100Z
   AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
   80WSW OCF/OCALA FL/ - 50E DAB/DAYTONA BEACH FL/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /57SSW CTY - 47E OMN/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.
   
   REPLACES WW 14..FL GA CW 
   
   LAT...LON 29458344 29898022 28458022 28008344
   
   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU5.
   

Watch 15 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 15

VALID 021025Z - 021100Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W PIE TO
25 SSW OCF TO 55 ENE DAB.

WW 15 MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED LOCALLY...FROM AROUND TAMPA INTO
AREAS NORTHWEST OF MELBOURNE...FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND 11Z.
OTHERWISE... AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 

..KERR..02/02/07

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 15 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

FLC009-053-069-095-101-117-119-127-021100-

FL 
.    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD 	     HERNANDO		 LAKE		     
ORANGE		     PASCO		 SEMINOLE	     
SUMTER		     VOLUSIA		 
$$


AMZ550-021100-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 15

VALID 020840Z - 020940Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW CTY
TO 5 SSE GNV.

..KERR..02/02/07

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 15 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

FLC009-017-035-053-069-083-095-101-107-117-119-127-020940-

FL 
.    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD 	     CITRUS		 FLAGLER	     
HERNANDO	     LAKE		 MARION 	     
ORANGE		     PASCO		 PUTNAM 	     
SEMINOLE	     SUMTER		 VOLUSIA	     
$$


AMZ454-550-GMZ850-020940-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM 

COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM 

COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 15

VALID 020730Z - 020840Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..KERR..02/02/07

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 15 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

FLC009-017-035-053-069-075-083-095-101-107-117-119-127-020840-

FL 
.    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD 	     CITRUS		 FLAGLER	     
HERNANDO	     LAKE		 LEVY		     
MARION		     ORANGE		 PASCO		     
PUTNAM		     SEMINOLE		 SUMTER 	     
VOLUSIA 	     
$$


AMZ454-550-GMZ850-020840-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM 

COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM 

COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.