Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 68
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 555 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MARFA TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST
NM AND WEST TX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING
THE EVENING...WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER
CELLS. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND WEAK CAP WILL
PROMOTE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR ISOLATED
SUPERCELL STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23030.
...HART
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 68
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 555 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MARFA TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST
NM AND WEST TX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING
THE EVENING...WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER
CELLS. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND WEAK CAP WILL
PROMOTE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR ISOLATED
SUPERCELL STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 68 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 222255Z - 230500Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NW CDS/CHILDRESS TX/ - 40SSW MRF/MARFA TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /33NW CDS - 33SSW MRF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.
LAT...LON 34779966 29820326 29820527 34770176
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 68 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 68
VALID 230455Z - 230500Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W 6R6 TO
40 NW INK TO 50 NE BGS.
WW 68 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 230500Z.
..CARBIN..03/23/07
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 68
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC003-103-135-301-317-329-371-475-495-230500-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS CRANE ECTOR
LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND
PECOS WARD WINKLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 68
VALID 230400Z - 230540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW HOB TO
60 NE BGS.
..CARBIN..03/23/07
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 68
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-230540-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDY LEA
$$
TXC003-033-043-103-109-115-135-165-243-301-317-329-371-377-389-
475-495-230540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BORDEN BREWSTER
CRANE CULBERSON DAWSON
ECTOR GAINES JEFF DAVIS
LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND
PECOS PRESIDIO REEVES
WARD WINKLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 68
VALID 230250Z - 230340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE HOB
TO 30 ESE PVW TO 35 NW CDS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 322
..CARBIN..03/23/07
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 68
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-230340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDY LEA
$$
TXC003-033-043-075-101-103-107-109-115-125-135-165-169-191-243-
263-269-301-303-305-317-329-345-371-377-389-445-475-495-501-
230340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BORDEN BREWSTER
CHILDRESS COTTLE CRANE
CROSBY CULBERSON DAWSON
DICKENS ECTOR GAINES
GARZA HALL JEFF DAVIS
KENT KING LOVING
LUBBOCK LYNN MARTIN
MIDLAND MOTLEY PECOS
PRESIDIO REEVES TERRY
WARD WINKLER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 68
VALID 230155Z - 230240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE HOB
TO 15 S PVW TO 45 SE AMA.
..CARBIN..03/23/07
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 68
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-230240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDY LEA
$$
TXC003-033-043-045-075-101-103-107-109-115-125-135-153-165-169-
191-219-243-263-269-301-303-305-317-329-345-371-377-389-445-475-
495-501-230240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BORDEN BREWSTER
BRISCOE CHILDRESS COTTLE
CRANE CROSBY CULBERSON
DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR
FLOYD GAINES GARZA
HALL HOCKLEY JEFF DAVIS
KENT KING LOVING
LUBBOCK LYNN MARTIN
MIDLAND MOTLEY PECOS
PRESIDIO REEVES TERRY
WARD WINKLER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 68
VALID 230030Z - 230140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..03/23/07
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 68
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-230140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDY LEA
$$
TXC003-033-043-045-069-075-079-101-103-107-109-115-125-135-153-
165-169-189-191-219-243-263-269-279-301-303-305-317-329-345-371-
377-389-437-445-475-495-501-230140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BORDEN BREWSTER
BRISCOE CASTRO CHILDRESS
COCHRAN COTTLE CRANE
CROSBY CULBERSON DAWSON
DICKENS ECTOR FLOYD
GAINES GARZA HALE
HALL HOCKLEY JEFF DAVIS
KENT KING LAMB
LOVING LUBBOCK LYNN
MARTIN MIDLAND MOTLEY
PECOS PRESIDIO REEVES
SWISHER TERRY WARD
WINKLER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.