Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 312
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1205 PM UNTIL
700 PM MDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 135 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF IMPERIAL
NEBRASKA TO 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BURLINGTON COLORADO. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE IN ALLEY OF FAVORABLE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE SEWD FROM SERN WY. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS MUCAPE
VALUES ARE BETWEEN 100-2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER IS ALSO ON THE
INCREASE AT 50-60 KT FROM CENTRAL CO INTO W CENTRAL KS JUST AHEAD OF
MID LEVEL JET EXIT REGION. EXPECT MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID LEVEL
JET EXIT REGION AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND LOW LEVEL
JET BECOMES MORE DEFINED BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...MCCARTHY
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 312
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1205 PM UNTIL
700 PM MDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 135 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF IMPERIAL
NEBRASKA TO 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BURLINGTON COLORADO. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE IN ALLEY OF FAVORABLE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE SEWD FROM SERN WY. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS MUCAPE
VALUES ARE BETWEEN 100-2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER IS ALSO ON THE
INCREASE AT 50-60 KT FROM CENTRAL CO INTO W CENTRAL KS JUST AHEAD OF
MID LEVEL JET EXIT REGION. EXPECT MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID LEVEL
JET EXIT REGION AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND LOW LEVEL
JET BECOMES MORE DEFINED BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...MCCARTHY
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 312 TORNADO CO KS NE 311805Z - 010100Z
AXIS..135 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NE IML/IMPERIAL NE/ - 75SSE ITR/BURLINGTON CO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 115NM E/W /42SW LBF - 44E LAA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 40639883 38209926 38200423 40630398
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 312 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 312
VALID 010025Z - 010100Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE SPD
TO 55 ENE LAA TO 55 NNW GCK TO 40 SW HLC TO 10 ESE HLC TO 45 SSW
HSI.
WW 312 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010100Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 939
..BOTHWELL..06/01/07
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...DDC...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 312
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC011-061-099-010100-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENT KIOWA PROWERS
$$
KSC039-051-055-063-065-075-089-093-101-109-123-137-141-147-153-
163-171-179-183-193-195-203-010100-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DECATUR ELLIS FINNEY
GOVE GRAHAM HAMILTON
JEWELL KEARNY LANE
LOGAN MITCHELL NORTON
OSBORNE PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS SCOTT SHERIDAN
SMITH THOMAS TREGO
WICHITA
$$
NEC061-065-073-083-087-099-137-145-010100-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN FURNAS GOSPER
HARLAN HITCHCOCK KEARNEY
PHELPS RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 312
VALID 312330Z - 010040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N LHX TO
40 S ITR TO 25 S GLD TO 15 ENE GLD TO 25 SSE IML TO 25 WNW IML TO
45 NW IML.
..BOTHWELL..05/31/07
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...DDC...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 312
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC011-061-099-010040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENT KIOWA PROWERS
$$
KSC039-051-055-063-065-075-089-093-101-109-123-137-141-147-153-
163-171-179-183-193-195-203-010040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DECATUR ELLIS FINNEY
GOVE GRAHAM HAMILTON
JEWELL KEARNY LANE
LOGAN MITCHELL NORTON
OSBORNE PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS SCOTT SHERIDAN
SMITH THOMAS TREGO
WICHITA
$$
NEC029-061-063-065-073-083-085-087-099-101-111-135-137-145-
010040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHASE FRANKLIN FRONTIER
FURNAS GOSPER HARLAN
HAYES HITCHCOCK KEARNEY
KEITH LINCOLN PERKINS
PHELPS RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 312
VALID 312235Z - 312340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N LHX TO
35 NE LIC TO 30 ENE AKO TO 40 NW IML.
..BOTHWELL..05/31/07
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...DDC...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 312
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC011-017-061-063-099-125-312340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENT CHEYENNE KIOWA
KIT CARSON PROWERS YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-051-055-063-065-071-075-089-093-101-109-123-137-141-
147-153-163-171-179-181-183-193-195-199-203-312340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR ELLIS
FINNEY GOVE GRAHAM
GREELEY HAMILTON JEWELL
KEARNY LANE LOGAN
MITCHELL NORTON OSBORNE
PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS
SCOTT SHERIDAN SHERMAN
SMITH THOMAS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC029-057-061-063-065-073-083-085-087-099-101-111-135-137-145-
312340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHASE DUNDY FRANKLIN
FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER
HARLAN HAYES HITCHCOCK
KEARNEY KEITH LINCOLN
PERKINS PHELPS RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 312
VALID 312130Z - 312240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 937
..BOTHWELL..05/31/07
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...DDC...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 312
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-011-017-039-061-063-073-075-087-095-099-115-121-123-
125-312240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BENT
CHEYENNE ELBERT KIOWA
KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN
MORGAN PHILLIPS PROWERS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD
YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-051-055-063-065-071-075-089-093-101-109-123-137-141-
147-153-163-171-179-181-183-193-195-199-203-312240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR ELLIS
FINNEY GOVE GRAHAM
GREELEY HAMILTON JEWELL
KEARNY LANE LOGAN
MITCHELL NORTON OSBORNE
PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS
SCOTT SHERIDAN SHERMAN
SMITH THOMAS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC029-057-061-063-065-073-083-085-087-099-101-111-135-137-145-
312240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHASE DUNDY FRANKLIN
FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER
HARLAN HAYES HITCHCOCK
KEARNEY KEITH LINCOLN
PERKINS PHELPS RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 312
VALID 312035Z - 312140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 937
..BOTHWELL..05/31/07
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...DDC...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 312
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-011-017-039-061-063-073-075-087-095-099-115-121-123-
125-312140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BENT
CHEYENNE ELBERT KIOWA
KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN
MORGAN PHILLIPS PROWERS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD
YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-051-055-063-065-071-075-089-093-101-109-123-137-141-
147-153-163-171-179-181-183-193-195-199-203-312140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR ELLIS
FINNEY GOVE GRAHAM
GREELEY HAMILTON JEWELL
KEARNY LANE LOGAN
MITCHELL NORTON OSBORNE
PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS
SCOTT SHERIDAN SHERMAN
SMITH THOMAS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC029-057-061-063-065-073-083-085-087-099-101-111-135-137-145-
312140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHASE DUNDY FRANKLIN
FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER
HARLAN HAYES HITCHCOCK
KEARNEY KEITH LINCOLN
PERKINS PHELPS RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 312
VALID 311930Z - 312040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BOTHWELL..05/31/07
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...DDC...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 312
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-011-017-039-061-063-073-075-087-095-099-115-121-123-
125-312040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BENT
CHEYENNE ELBERT KIOWA
KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN
MORGAN PHILLIPS PROWERS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD
YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-051-055-063-065-071-075-093-101-109-137-147-153-163-
171-179-181-193-195-199-203-312040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR ELLIS
FINNEY GOVE GRAHAM
GREELEY HAMILTON KEARNY
LANE LOGAN NORTON
PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS
SCOTT SHERIDAN SHERMAN
THOMAS TREGO WALLACE
WICHITA
$$
NEC029-057-061-063-065-073-083-085-087-099-101-111-135-137-145-
312040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHASE DUNDY FRANKLIN
FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER
HARLAN HAYES HITCHCOCK
KEARNEY KEITH LINCOLN
PERKINS PHELPS RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.