Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
815 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA
FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 815 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH OF DES MOINES
IOWA TO 40 MILES WEST OF CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 384...WW 385...WW
386...WW 387...WW 388...
DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDING INTO IA/NWRN
MO THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS FOR A TORNADO THREAT TO DEVELOP EWD INTO
CENTRAL IA AND NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL MO. AN EVOLVING LINEAR MODE WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ACROSS ERN NEB/WEST CENTRAL IA IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EWD PRODUCING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY
BOW STRUCTURES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
...PETERS/THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 389 TORNADO IA KS MO 300115Z - 300800Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
70N DSM/DES MOINES IA/ - 40W CDJ/CHILLICOTHE MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /28E FOD - 34NNE MKC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
LAT...LON 42529219 39819291 39819575 42529513
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 389 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 389
VALID 300730Z - 300800Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW FNB
TO 30 NE FNB TO 35 E SDA TO 10 NE DSM TO 40 SW ALO TO 25 SSE ALO.
WW 389 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300800Z EXCEPT WHERE EXTENDED
LOCALLY UNTIL 10Z...PER COORDINATION W/DSM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1093.
..EDWARDS..05/30/08
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 389
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-039-053-099-117-121-123-125-127-135-153-157-159-171-173-
175-181-185-300800-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE CLARKE DECATUR
JASPER LUCAS MADISON
MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL
MONROE POLK POWESHIEK
RINGGOLD TAMA TAYLOR
UNION WARREN WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 389
VALID 300645Z - 300740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..EDWARDS..05/30/08
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 389
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-007-009-015-025-027-029-039-047-049-053-073-075-077-
079-083-099-117-121-123-125-127-135-153-157-159-161-169-171-173-
175-181-185-187-300740-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
AUDUBON BOONE CALHOUN
CARROLL CASS CLARKE
CRAWFORD DALLAS DECATUR
GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE
HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER
LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MARSHALL MONROE
POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
SAC STORY TAMA
TAYLOR UNION WARREN
WAYNE WEBSTER
$$
KSC005-043-300740-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN
$$
MOC003-005-021-061-063-075-079-081-087-115-117-129-147-171-211-
227-300740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON BUCHANAN
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT
LINN LIVINGSTON MERCER
NODAWAY PUTNAM SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 389
VALID 300535Z - 300640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..EDWARDS..05/30/08
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 389
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-007-009-015-025-027-029-039-047-049-053-073-075-077-
079-083-099-117-121-123-125-127-135-153-157-159-161-169-171-173-
175-181-185-187-300640-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
AUDUBON BOONE CALHOUN
CARROLL CASS CLARKE
CRAWFORD DALLAS DECATUR
GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE
HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER
LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MARSHALL MONROE
POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
SAC STORY TAMA
TAYLOR UNION WARREN
WAYNE WEBSTER
$$
KSC005-043-300640-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN
$$
MOC003-005-021-061-063-075-079-081-087-115-117-129-147-171-211-
227-300640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON BUCHANAN
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT
LINN LIVINGSTON MERCER
NODAWAY PUTNAM SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 389
VALID 300435Z - 300540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1091
..HURLBUT..05/30/08
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 389
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-007-009-015-025-027-029-039-047-049-053-073-075-077-
079-083-099-117-121-123-125-127-135-153-157-159-161-169-171-173-
175-181-185-187-300540-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
AUDUBON BOONE CALHOUN
CARROLL CASS CLARKE
CRAWFORD DALLAS DECATUR
GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE
HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER
LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MARSHALL MONROE
POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
SAC STORY TAMA
TAYLOR UNION WARREN
WAYNE WEBSTER
$$
KSC005-043-300540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN
$$
MOC003-005-021-061-063-075-079-081-087-115-117-129-147-171-211-
227-300540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON BUCHANAN
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT
LINN LIVINGSTON MERCER
NODAWAY PUTNAM SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 389
VALID 300235Z - 300340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..05/30/08
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 389
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-007-009-015-025-027-029-039-047-049-053-073-075-077-
079-083-099-117-121-123-125-127-135-153-157-159-161-169-171-173-
175-181-185-187-300340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
AUDUBON BOONE CALHOUN
CARROLL CASS CLARKE
CRAWFORD DALLAS DECATUR
GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE
HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER
LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MARSHALL MONROE
POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
SAC STORY TAMA
TAYLOR UNION WARREN
WAYNE WEBSTER
$$
KSC005-043-300340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN
$$
MOC003-005-021-061-063-075-079-081-087-115-117-129-147-171-211-
227-300340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON BUCHANAN
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT
LINN LIVINGSTON MERCER
NODAWAY PUTNAM SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.