Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
PARTS OF WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 430 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MONROE LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF NATCHEZ
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED IN WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION
AND WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 30-40KT OF SHEAR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITH POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS WATCH WITH PRIMARY THREAT
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...HALES
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
PARTS OF WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 430 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MONROE LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF NATCHEZ
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED IN WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION
AND WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 30-40KT OF SHEAR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITH POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS WATCH WITH PRIMARY THREAT
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 2 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 032230Z - 040300Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
80NE MLU/MONROE LA/ - 35WSW HEZ/NATCHEZ MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /39W SQS - 35ENE AEX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
LAT...LON 33339018 31429100 31429269 33339191
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 2 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 2
VALID 040040Z - 040140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ESF TO
35 S MLU TO 15 NNW HEZ TO 35 ENE HEZ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 8.
..PETERS..01/04/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 2
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC025-029-040140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
$$
MSC001-037-063-040140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS FRANKLIN JEFFERSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 2
VALID 032335Z - 040040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..01/03/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 2
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-040040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC021-025-029-035-041-043-049-059-065-067-073-083-107-123-127-
040040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE MADISON
MOREHOUSE OUACHITA RICHLAND
TENSAS WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
MSC001-021-037-055-063-125-149-151-040040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CLAIBORNE FRANKLIN
ISSAQUENA JEFFERSON SHARKEY
WARREN WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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