Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHERN INDIANA
LARGE PART OF LOWER MICHIGAN
SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST
OF MOUNT CLEMENS MICHIGAN TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BENTON HARBOR
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 181. WATCH NUMBER 181 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 340 PM EDT.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS SRN
LWR MI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS AND ACCOMPANYING WIND
DAMAGE THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 182 SEVERE TSTM IN MI OH LE LH LM 251940Z - 260200Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
40ENE MTC/MOUNT CLEMENS MI/ - 30SW BEH/BENTON HARBOR MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM EITHER SIDE /38SE ECK - 24W GIJ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
REPLACES WW 181..MI LH
LAT...LON 42048188 41048662 42598705 43598231
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 182 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 182
VALID 260125Z - 260200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE VPZ
TO JXN TO 20 SW FNT TO 55 SE BAX.
WW 182 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 260200Z.
..GARNER..04/26/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 182
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC033-039-049-085-087-099-113-131-149-151-183-260200-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DE KALB ELKHART FULTON
KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE MARSHALL
NOBLE PULASKI STARKE
STEUBEN WHITLEY
$$
MIC023-059-091-093-099-115-125-147-161-163-260200-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANCH HILLSDALE LENAWEE
LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE
OAKLAND ST. CLAIR WASHTENAW
WAYNE
$$
OHC051-171-260200-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FULTON WILLIAMS
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-260200-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 182
VALID 260035Z - 260140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE VPZ
TO 5 WSW LAN TO 45 ESE BAX.
..GARNER..04/26/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 182
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC033-039-049-085-087-099-113-131-149-151-183-260140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DE KALB ELKHART FULTON
KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE MARSHALL
NOBLE PULASKI STARKE
STEUBEN WHITLEY
$$
MIC023-025-059-065-075-091-093-099-115-125-147-149-161-163-
260140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANCH CALHOUN HILLSDALE
INGHAM JACKSON LENAWEE
LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE
OAKLAND ST. CLAIR ST. JOSEPH
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
OHC051-171-260140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FULTON WILLIAMS
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ443-260140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 182
VALID 252325Z - 260040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 568
..GARNER..04/25/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 182
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC033-039-049-085-087-091-099-113-131-141-149-151-183-260040-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DE KALB ELKHART FULTON
KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE
MARSHALL NOBLE PULASKI
ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN
WHITLEY
$$
MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-037-045-049-059-065-067-075-077-087-
091-093-099-115-125-145-147-149-151-155-157-159-161-163-
260040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
CLINTON EATON GENESEE
HILLSDALE INGHAM IONIA
JACKSON KALAMAZOO LAPEER
LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MONROE OAKLAND SAGINAW
ST. CLAIR ST. JOSEPH SANILAC
SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA VAN BUREN
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
OHC051-171-260040-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FULTON WILLIAMS
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ442-443-463-464-LMZ043-046-080-844-845-
878-260040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 182
VALID 252225Z - 252340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..04/25/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 182
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC033-039-049-085-087-091-099-113-131-141-149-151-183-252340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DE KALB ELKHART FULTON
KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE
MARSHALL NOBLE PULASKI
ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN
WHITLEY
$$
MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-037-045-049-059-065-067-075-077-087-
091-093-099-115-125-145-147-149-151-155-157-159-161-163-
252340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
CLINTON EATON GENESEE
HILLSDALE INGHAM IONIA
JACKSON KALAMAZOO LAPEER
LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MONROE OAKLAND SAGINAW
ST. CLAIR ST. JOSEPH SANILAC
SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA VAN BUREN
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
OHC051-171-252340-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FULTON WILLIAMS
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ442-443-463-464-LMZ043-046-080-844-845-
878-252340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 182
VALID 252125Z - 252240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..04/25/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 182
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC033-039-049-085-087-091-099-113-131-141-149-151-183-252240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DE KALB ELKHART FULTON
KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE
MARSHALL NOBLE PULASKI
ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN
WHITLEY
$$
MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-037-045-049-059-065-067-075-077-087-
091-093-099-115-125-145-147-149-151-155-157-159-161-163-
252240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
CLINTON EATON GENESEE
HILLSDALE INGHAM IONIA
JACKSON KALAMAZOO LAPEER
LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MONROE OAKLAND SAGINAW
ST. CLAIR ST. JOSEPH SANILAC
SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA VAN BUREN
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
OHC051-171-252240-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FULTON WILLIAMS
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ442-443-463-464-LMZ043-046-080-844-845-
878-252240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.