Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
SAINT JOSEPH MISSOURI TO 75 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF COLUMBIA
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 304. WATCH NUMBER 304 WILL NOT BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 1250 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT IS GETTING MORE DEFINED E-W ACROSS NRN MO
JUST NORTH OF THE MO RIVER. EXPECT CLUSTER OF STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO
A BOWING MCS OR CYCLIC HP-SUPERCELL MOVING ESEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AND WEAKENS CAP.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITH THE STRONGER CORES...EVEN NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT WITH ELEVATED STORMS. ACTIVITY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND HAZARDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 305 TORNADO IL KS MO 151750Z - 160100Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
10SSW STJ/SAINT JOSEPH MO/ - 75ENE COU/COLUMBIA MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /28NW MKC - 30NW STL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
REPLACES WW 304..IA KS MO NE
LAT...LON 40299498 39889093 38589093 38979498
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 305 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 305
VALID 160030Z - 160140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW JEF
TO 25 NW COU TO 30 NNW COU TO 50 SSE UIN.
..GOSS..05/16/09
ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 305
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC013-160140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN
$$
MOC007-019-027-113-139-219-160140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY
LINCOLN MONTGOMERY WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 305
VALID 152235Z - 152340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW STJ
TO 40 NNE COU TO 40 WSW UIN TO 10 ESE UIN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 838
..GOSS..05/15/09
ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 305
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC009-013-149-152340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALHOUN PIKE
$$
KSC091-103-107-121-209-152340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN
MIAMI WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC007-013-019-027-033-037-047-053-083-089-095-101-107-113-127-
135-139-159-163-165-173-175-177-195-219-152340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BATES BOONE
CALLAWAY CARROLL CASS
CLAY COOPER HENRY
HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON
LAFAYETTE LINCOLN MARION
MONITEAU MONTGOMERY PETTIS
PIKE PLATTE RALLS
RANDOLPH RAY SALINE
WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 305
VALID 152030Z - 152140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 836
..SMITH..05/15/09
ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 305
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-013-149-152140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN CALHOUN
PIKE
$$
KSC005-043-091-103-209-152140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC001-003-007-019-021-025-027-033-041-047-049-053-061-063-079-
089-095-103-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-135-137-139-163-165-173-
175-177-195-205-211-219-152140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW AUDRAIN
BOONE BUCHANAN CALDWELL
CALLAWAY CARROLL CHARITON
CLAY CLINTON COOPER
DAVIESS DEKALB GRUNDY
HOWARD JACKSON KNOX
LAFAYETTE LEWIS LINCOLN
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
MARION MONITEAU MONROE
MONTGOMERY PIKE PLATTE
RALLS RANDOLPH RAY
SALINE SHELBY SULLIVAN
WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.