Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EXTREME EASTERN WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
800 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF CHADRON NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF SCOTTSBLUFF
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STRONG FORCING ALOFT WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORMS
INTENSIFYING AND SPREADING EWD/NEWD FROM SERN WY INTO PORTIONS OF
SWRN SD AND WRN NEB INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT MID LEVEL ROTATION AND SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...STRONG LINEAR
FORCING SUGGESTS A LINE OF STORMS IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP...WITH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONG CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW
AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...IMY
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 706 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 152010Z - 160200Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60NNE CDR/CHADRON NE/ - 45S BFF/SCOTTSBLUFF NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /26SE RAP - 29WNW SNY/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 43610123 41220225 41220494 43610404
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 706 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 706
VALID 160145Z - 160240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW SNY
TO 50 SE AIA TO 50 WNW VTN TO 30 S PHP.
..PETERS..08/16/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 706
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-017-031-033-049-069-075-091-101-103-105-160240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BROWN CHERRY
CHEYENNE DEUEL GARDEN
GRANT HOOKER KEITH
KEYA PAHA KIMBALL
$$
SDC071-095-121-123-160240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JACKSON MELLETTE TODD
TRIPP
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 706
VALID 160040Z - 160140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E CYS TO
20 SW AIA TO 30 ENE AIA TO 50 E CDR TO 40 SW PHP.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1897.
..PETERS..08/16/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 706
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-007-017-031-033-049-069-075-091-101-103-105-123-161-
160140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BROWN
CHERRY CHEYENNE DEUEL
GARDEN GRANT HOOKER
KEITH KEYA PAHA KIMBALL
MORRILL SHERIDAN
$$
SDC007-071-095-121-123-160140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT JACKSON MELLETTE
TODD TRIPP
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 706
VALID 152345Z - 160040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E CYS TO
20 SW AIA TO 15 ESE CDR TO 30 S RAP.
..PETERS..08/15/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 706
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-007-013-031-033-049-069-075-091-101-105-123-161-160040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE
CHERRY CHEYENNE DEUEL
GARDEN GRANT HOOKER
KEITH KIMBALL MORRILL
SHERIDAN
$$
SDC007-071-113-160040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT JACKSON SHANNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 706
VALID 152245Z - 152340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E CYS TO
55 WSW RAP.
..PETERS..08/15/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 706
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-007-013-031-033-045-049-069-075-091-101-105-123-157-161-
165-152340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE
CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES
DEUEL GARDEN GRANT
HOOKER KEITH KIMBALL
MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN
SIOUX
$$
SDC007-033-047-071-113-152340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER
JACKSON SHANNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 706
VALID 152145Z - 152240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..08/15/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 706
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-007-013-031-033-045-049-069-075-091-101-105-123-157-161-
165-152240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE
CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES
DEUEL GARDEN GRANT
HOOKER KEITH KIMBALL
MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN
SIOUX
$$
SDC007-033-047-071-113-152240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER
JACKSON SHANNON
$$
WYC015-027-031-152240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN NIOBRARA PLATTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.