Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 711
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 610 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF IMPERIAL NEBRASKA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 709...WW 710...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG A
SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN NEB INTO CENTRAL SD. THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...IN REGION OF
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CORES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 711 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 182310Z - 190700Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NE PIR/PIERRE SD/ - 10SE IML/IMPERIAL NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /35NE PIR - 43WNW MCK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 44839819 40400016 40400281 44830105
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 711 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 711
VALID 190300Z - 190440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE MCK TO
30 SSW MHN TO 35 NNW ONL TO 30 ESE 9V9 TO 50 NE PIR.
..SPC..08/19/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 711
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC009-015-017-041-091-103-113-115-117-149-171-190440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE BOYD BROWN
CUSTER HOOKER KEYA PAHA
LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON
ROCK THOMAS
$$
SDC003-005-017-035-043-059-073-111-190440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BUFFALO
DAVISON DOUGLAS HAND
JERAULD SANBORN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 711
VALID 190135Z - 190240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E AIA TO
30 ENE VTN TO 25 NW 9V9 TO 30 N PIR.
..GRAMS..08/19/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 711
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-041-049-063-069-075-085-091-101-103-
111-113-115-117-135-149-171-190240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD
BROWN CHASE CHERRY
CUSTER DEUEL FRONTIER
GARDEN GRANT HAYES
HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA
LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON PERKINS ROCK
THOMAS
$$
SDC003-005-015-017-023-035-043-053-059-065-069-073-085-111-119-
123-190240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BRULE
BUFFALO CHARLES MIX DAVISON
DOUGLAS GREGORY HAND
HUGHES HYDE JERAULD
LYMAN SANBORN SULLY
TRIPP
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 711
VALID 190040Z - 190140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W VTN TO
45 SE PHP TO 35 NNE PHP.
..GRAMS..08/19/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 711
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-041-049-063-069-075-085-091-101-103-
111-113-115-117-135-149-161-171-190140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD
BROWN CHASE CHERRY
CUSTER DEUEL FRONTIER
GARDEN GRANT HAYES
HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA
LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON PERKINS ROCK
SHERIDAN THOMAS
$$
SDC003-005-015-017-023-035-043-053-059-065-069-073-075-085-095-
111-117-119-121-123-190140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BRULE
BUFFALO CHARLES MIX DAVISON
DOUGLAS GREGORY HAND
HUGHES HYDE JERAULD
JONES LYMAN MELLETTE
SANBORN STANLEY SULLY
TODD TRIPP
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.