Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 53
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
PARTS OF NORTHWEST OHIO
SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LAKE ERIE
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1105 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES WEST OF
ROCKFORD ILLINOIS TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DETROIT MICHIGAN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52...
DISCUSSION...SERIES OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN THE VIGOROUS WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS THE WATCH DRIVEN
BY THE 50KT KT LOW LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION TO WIND DAMAGE LARGE HAIL
WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE CLUSTERS OF STORMS...SOME WHICH MAY BE
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27040.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 53 SEVERE TSTM IA IL IN MI OH WI LE LM 060405Z - 061100Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
75W RFD/ROCKFORD IL/ - 25ESE DTW/DETROIT MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM N/S /14SSE DBQ - 22ESE DXO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
LAT...LON 42779056 42658290 41508290 41619056
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 53 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 53
VALID 060740Z - 060840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CGX TO
40 E RAC.
..BROYLES..04/06/10
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...IWX...GRR...DTX...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 53
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC039-087-091-141-151-060840-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ELKHART LAGRANGE LA PORTE
ST. JOSEPH STEUBEN
$$
MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-045-059-065-075-077-091-093-099-115-
125-149-159-161-163-060840-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
EATON HILLSDALE INGHAM
JACKSON KALAMAZOO LENAWEE
LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE
OAKLAND ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
OHC051-171-060840-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FULTON WILLIAMS
$$
LCZ423-460-LEZ444-LMZ043-046-080-675-743-744-745-777-779-844-845-
876-878-060840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN
BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 53
VALID 060625Z - 060740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/06/10
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...IWX...GRR...DTX...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 53
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-015-031-037-043-085-089-093-097-103-111-141-161-177-195-
197-201-060740-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CARROLL COOK
DEKALB DUPAGE JO DAVIESS
KANE KENDALL LAKE
LEE MCHENRY OGLE
ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE
WILL WINNEBAGO
$$
INC039-087-089-091-127-141-151-060740-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ELKHART LAGRANGE LAKE
LA PORTE PORTER ST. JOSEPH
STEUBEN
$$
IAC045-097-163-060740-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLINTON JACKSON SCOTT
$$
MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-045-059-065-075-077-091-093-099-115-
125-149-159-161-163-060740-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
EATON HILLSDALE INGHAM
JACKSON KALAMAZOO LENAWEE
LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE
OAKLAND ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
OHC051-171-060740-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FULTON WILLIAMS
$$
WIC045-059-065-101-105-127-060740-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREEN KENOSHA LAFAYETTE
RACINE ROCK WALWORTH
$$
LCZ423-460-LEZ444-LMZ043-046-080-646-675-740-741-742-743-744-745-
777-779-844-845-876-878-060740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN
BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 53
VALID 060530Z - 060640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/06/10
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...IWX...GRR...DTX...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 53
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-015-031-037-043-085-089-093-097-103-111-141-161-177-195-
197-201-060640-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CARROLL COOK
DEKALB DUPAGE JO DAVIESS
KANE KENDALL LAKE
LEE MCHENRY OGLE
ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE
WILL WINNEBAGO
$$
INC039-087-089-091-127-141-151-060640-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ELKHART LAGRANGE LAKE
LA PORTE PORTER ST. JOSEPH
STEUBEN
$$
IAC045-097-163-060640-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLINTON JACKSON SCOTT
$$
MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-045-059-065-075-077-091-093-099-115-
125-149-159-161-163-060640-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
EATON HILLSDALE INGHAM
JACKSON KALAMAZOO LENAWEE
LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE
OAKLAND ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
OHC051-171-060640-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FULTON WILLIAMS
$$
WIC045-059-065-101-105-127-060640-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREEN KENOSHA LAFAYETTE
RACINE ROCK WALWORTH
$$
LCZ423-460-LEZ444-LMZ043-046-080-646-675-740-741-742-743-744-745-
777-779-844-845-876-878-060640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN
BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.