Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 70
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT TUE APR 13 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST COLORADO
MUCH OF WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
MUCH OF WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO 15 MILES NORTH OF MINOT NORTH
DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD INTO HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
FOCUS FOR A DEVELOPING LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THRU THE
AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...STRENGTH OF WIND
FIELDS AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS WATCH AREA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 70 SEVERE TSTM CO ND NE SD 131750Z - 140000Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10SSW IML/IMPERIAL NE/ - 15N MOT/MINOT ND/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /52WNW MCK - 14N MOT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
LAT...LON 40380293 48470269 48479986 40380045
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 70 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 70
VALID 132320Z - 140000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE AKO
TO 30 WNW VTN TO 35 NW MBG TO 30 WSW BIS TO 15 N MOT.
PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 70 COULD BE LOCALLY
EXTENDED IN TIME...OTHERWISE WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 14/00Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 311.
..KERR..04/13/10
ATTN...WFO...BOU...BIS...LBF...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 70
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-095-115-140000-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
$$
NEC005-029-031-049-063-069-075-085-091-101-111-113-117-135-171-
140000-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR CHASE CHERRY
DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN
GRANT HAYES HOOKER
KEITH LINCOLN LOGAN
MCPHERSON PERKINS THOMAS
$$
NDC015-029-037-043-049-055-057-059-061-065-069-083-085-101-103-
140000-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURLEIGH EMMONS GRANT
KIDDER MCHENRY MCLEAN
MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL
OLIVER PIERCE SHERIDAN
SIOUX WARD WELLS
$$
SDC021-031-041-065-075-085-095-107-117-119-121-123-129-140000-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY
HUGHES JONES LYMAN
MELLETTE POTTER STANLEY
SULLY TODD TRIPP
WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 70
VALID 132250Z - 132340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE AKO
TO 50 W VTN TO 45 W MBG TO 20 NNE Y22 TO 35 WNW MOT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 311.
..KERR..04/13/10
ATTN...WFO...BOU...BIS...LBF...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 70
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-095-115-132340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
$$
NEC005-029-031-049-063-069-075-085-091-101-111-113-117-135-171-
132340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR CHASE CHERRY
DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN
GRANT HAYES HOOKER
KEITH LINCOLN LOGAN
MCPHERSON PERKINS THOMAS
$$
NDC015-029-037-043-049-055-057-059-061-065-069-083-085-101-103-
132340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURLEIGH EMMONS GRANT
KIDDER MCHENRY MCLEAN
MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL
OLIVER PIERCE SHERIDAN
SIOUX WARD WELLS
$$
SDC021-031-041-065-075-085-095-107-117-119-121-123-129-132340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY
HUGHES JONES LYMAN
MELLETTE POTTER STANLEY
SULLY TODD TRIPP
WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 70
VALID 132135Z - 132240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N SNY TO
45 ENE CDR TO 30 WNW PHP TO Y22 TO 45 ENE ISN.
..KERR..04/13/10
ATTN...WFO...BOU...BIS...LBF...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 70
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-095-115-132240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
$$
NEC005-029-031-049-063-069-075-085-091-101-111-113-117-135-171-
132240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR CHASE CHERRY
DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN
GRANT HAYES HOOKER
KEITH LINCOLN LOGAN
MCPHERSON PERKINS THOMAS
$$
NDC015-029-037-043-049-055-057-059-061-065-069-083-085-101-103-
132240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURLEIGH EMMONS GRANT
KIDDER MCHENRY MCLEAN
MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL
OLIVER PIERCE SHERIDAN
SIOUX WARD WELLS
$$
SDC007-021-031-041-055-065-071-075-085-095-107-117-119-121-123-
129-137-132240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CAMPBELL CORSON
DEWEY HAAKON HUGHES
JACKSON JONES LYMAN
MELLETTE POTTER STANLEY
SULLY TODD TRIPP
WALWORTH ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 70
VALID 131925Z - 132040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/13/10
ATTN...WFO...BOU...BIS...LBF...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 70
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-095-115-132040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
$$
NEC005-029-031-049-063-069-075-085-091-101-111-113-117-135-161-
171-132040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR CHASE CHERRY
DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN
GRANT HAYES HOOKER
KEITH LINCOLN LOGAN
MCPHERSON PERKINS SHERIDAN
THOMAS
$$
NDC001-015-025-029-037-041-043-049-055-057-059-061-065-069-083-
085-089-101-103-132040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BURLEIGH DUNN
EMMONS GRANT HETTINGER
KIDDER MCHENRY MCLEAN
MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL
OLIVER PIERCE SHERIDAN
SIOUX STARK WARD
WELLS
$$
SDC007-021-031-041-055-065-071-075-085-093-095-103-105-107-113-
117-119-121-123-129-137-132040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CAMPBELL CORSON
DEWEY HAAKON HUGHES
JACKSON JONES LYMAN
MEADE MELLETTE PENNINGTON
PERKINS POTTER SHANNON
STANLEY SULLY TODD
TRIPP WALWORTH ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.