Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
930 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN KANSAS
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 930 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF HILL CITY KANSAS TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
KANSAS CITY MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 353. WATCH NUMBER 353 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 930 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...INTENSE SUPERCELLS OVER NORTHERN KS HAVE BECOME OUTFLOW
DOMINANT AND ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD EWD WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN
THREAT. OTHER STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN KS AS
LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND STORMS DEVELOP NORTH OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL AND VERY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...IMY
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 354 SEVERE TSTM KS MO NE 200230Z - 200800Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20NNW HLC/HILL CITY KS/ - 50ENE MKC/KANSAS CITY MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /26NNE HLC - 40E MKC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
REPLACES WW 353..KS NE
LAT...LON 40369997 40119373 38659373 38919997
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 354 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 354
VALID 200635Z - 200740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..06/20/10
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...GLD...GID...ICT...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 354
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-013-027-029-039-041-043-045-059-061-065-085-087-089-091-
103-105-111-117-121-123-127-131-137-139-141-143-147-149-157-161-
163-169-177-179-183-197-201-209-200740-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN CLAY
CLOUD DECATUR DICKINSON
DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GEARY GRAHAM JACKSON
JEFFERSON JEWELL JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH LINCOLN LYON
MARSHALL MIAMI MITCHELL
MORRIS NEMAHA NORTON
OSAGE OSBORNE OTTAWA
PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RILEY ROOKS SALINE
SHAWNEE SHERIDAN SMITH
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC003-021-025-037-047-049-061-063-087-095-107-165-177-200740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL
CASS CLAY CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB HOLT
JACKSON LAFAYETTE PLATTE
RAY
$$
NEC061-065-067-083-095-129-133-147-169-181-200740-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN FURNAS GAGE
HARLAN JEFFERSON NUCKOLLS
PAWNEE RICHARDSON THAYER
WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 354
VALID 200540Z - 200640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..06/20/10
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...GLD...GID...ICT...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 354
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-013-027-029-039-041-043-045-059-061-065-085-087-089-091-
103-105-111-117-121-123-127-131-137-139-141-143-147-149-157-161-
163-169-177-179-183-197-201-209-200640-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN CLAY
CLOUD DECATUR DICKINSON
DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GEARY GRAHAM JACKSON
JEFFERSON JEWELL JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH LINCOLN LYON
MARSHALL MIAMI MITCHELL
MORRIS NEMAHA NORTON
OSAGE OSBORNE OTTAWA
PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RILEY ROOKS SALINE
SHAWNEE SHERIDAN SMITH
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC003-021-025-037-047-049-061-063-087-095-107-165-177-200640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL
CASS CLAY CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB HOLT
JACKSON LAFAYETTE PLATTE
RAY
$$
NEC061-065-067-083-095-129-133-147-169-181-200640-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN FURNAS GAGE
HARLAN JEFFERSON NUCKOLLS
PAWNEE RICHARDSON THAYER
WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 354
VALID 200435Z - 200540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/20/10
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...GLD...GID...ICT...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 354
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-013-027-029-039-041-043-045-059-061-065-085-087-089-091-
103-105-111-117-121-123-127-131-137-139-141-143-147-149-157-161-
163-169-177-179-183-197-201-209-200540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN CLAY
CLOUD DECATUR DICKINSON
DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GEARY GRAHAM JACKSON
JEFFERSON JEWELL JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH LINCOLN LYON
MARSHALL MIAMI MITCHELL
MORRIS NEMAHA NORTON
OSAGE OSBORNE OTTAWA
PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RILEY ROOKS SALINE
SHAWNEE SHERIDAN SMITH
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC003-021-025-037-047-049-061-063-087-095-107-165-177-200540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL
CASS CLAY CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB HOLT
JACKSON LAFAYETTE PLATTE
RAY
$$
NEC061-065-067-083-095-129-133-147-169-181-200540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN FURNAS GAGE
HARLAN JEFFERSON NUCKOLLS
PAWNEE RICHARDSON THAYER
WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 354
VALID 200345Z - 200440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/20/10
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...GLD...GID...ICT...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 354
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-013-027-029-039-041-043-045-059-061-065-085-087-089-091-
103-105-111-117-121-123-127-131-137-139-141-143-147-149-157-161-
163-169-177-179-183-197-201-209-200440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN CLAY
CLOUD DECATUR DICKINSON
DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GEARY GRAHAM JACKSON
JEFFERSON JEWELL JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH LINCOLN LYON
MARSHALL MIAMI MITCHELL
MORRIS NEMAHA NORTON
OSAGE OSBORNE OTTAWA
PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RILEY ROOKS SALINE
SHAWNEE SHERIDAN SMITH
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC003-021-025-037-047-049-061-063-087-095-107-165-177-200440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL
CASS CLAY CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB HOLT
JACKSON LAFAYETTE PLATTE
RAY
$$
NEC061-065-067-083-095-129-133-147-169-181-200440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN FURNAS GAGE
HARLAN JEFFERSON NUCKOLLS
PAWNEE RICHARDSON THAYER
WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.