Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 450
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PART OF EASTERN KANSAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CHANUTE KANSAS TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARMINGTON MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...INITIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY THIS
MORNING SE OF MKC IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND SEASONABLY STRONG MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD. THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
THE INTERSECTION WITH THE MCS INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NWRN TN. THE
COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
40-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WELL-ORGANIZED BOWING COMPLEX WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE WRN FLANK OF
MCS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN KS WITHIN A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WHERE AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29040.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 450 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 111510Z - 112100Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40NW CNU/CHANUTE KS/ - 40SE FAM/FARMINGTON MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /67NW OSW - 24SE FAM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29040.
LAT...LON 39029600 38298991 36418991 37139600
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 450 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 450
VALID 111925Z - 112040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WEISS..07/11/10
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 450
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-011-019-021-031-037-049-059-073-099-111-125-133-139-
205-207-112040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COFFEY
CRAWFORD ELK FRANKLIN
GREENWOOD LABETTE LYON
MONTGOMERY NEOSHO OSAGE
WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC009-011-017-023-035-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-091-093-097-
105-109-119-123-145-149-153-167-179-181-186-187-203-207-209-213-
215-217-223-225-229-112040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BOLLINGER
BUTLER CARTER CEDAR
CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS
DENT DOUGLAS GREENE
HOWELL IRON JASPER
LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD
MADISON NEWTON OREGON
OZARK POLK REYNOLDS
RIPLEY STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS
SHANNON STODDARD STONE
TANEY TEXAS VERNON
WAYNE WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 450
VALID 111745Z - 111840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WEISS..07/11/10
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 450
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-011-019-021-031-037-049-059-073-099-111-125-133-139-
205-207-111840-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COFFEY
CRAWFORD ELK FRANKLIN
GREENWOOD LABETTE LYON
MONTGOMERY NEOSHO OSAGE
WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC009-011-017-023-035-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-091-093-097-
105-109-119-123-145-149-153-167-179-181-186-187-203-207-209-213-
215-217-223-225-229-111840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BOLLINGER
BUTLER CARTER CEDAR
CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS
DENT DOUGLAS GREENE
HOWELL IRON JASPER
LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD
MADISON NEWTON OREGON
OZARK POLK REYNOLDS
RIPLEY STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS
SHANNON STODDARD STONE
TANEY TEXAS VERNON
WAYNE WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 450
VALID 111635Z - 111740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WEISS..07/11/10
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 450
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-011-019-021-031-037-049-059-073-099-107-111-121-125-
133-139-205-207-111740-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COFFEY
CRAWFORD ELK FRANKLIN
GREENWOOD LABETTE LINN
LYON MIAMI MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO OSAGE WILSON
WOODSON
$$
MOC009-011-013-015-017-023-029-035-037-039-043-051-053-055-057-
059-065-067-071-073-077-083-085-091-093-097-099-101-105-109-119-
123-125-131-135-141-145-149-151-153-159-161-167-169-179-181-185-
186-187-203-207-209-213-215-217-221-223-225-229-111740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BATES
BENTON BOLLINGER BUTLER
CAMDEN CARTER CASS
CEDAR CHRISTIAN COLE
COOPER CRAWFORD DADE
DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN GASCONADE GREENE
HENRY HICKORY HOWELL
IRON JASPER JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE
MCDONALD MADISON MARIES
MILLER MONITEAU MORGAN
NEWTON OREGON OSAGE
OZARK PETTIS PHELPS
POLK PULASKI REYNOLDS
RIPLEY ST. CLAIR STE. GENEVIEVE
ST. FRANCOIS SHANNON STODDARD
STONE TANEY TEXAS
VERNON WASHINGTON WAYNE
WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.