Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN IOWA
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
EASTERN NEBRASKA
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 445 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF LA CROSSE WISCONSIN TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...COMBINATION OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND STRONG
HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG AN AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEB NEWD INTO SERN
MN/SWRN WI. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30 TO 40 KT AND MLCAPES FROM
2500 TO 4000 J/KG...SEVERE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE APPEARS PROBABLE IN
THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31020.
...IMY
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 482 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE WI 162145Z - 170400Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
10ESE LSE/LA CROSSE WI/ - 55SW OLU/COLUMBUS NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM EITHER SIDE /18ESE ODI - 32SSE OBH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31020.
LAT...LON 43099062 40159768 41619851 44549151
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 482 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 482
VALID 170330Z - 170440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW ALO TO
30 SW FOD TO 30 NNW FOD TO 25 WSW MCW TO 30 ESE MCW TO 30 NNE ALO
TO 20 E ALO.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN NCNTRL IA MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE A
THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. FOR THIS REASON...WW 482 MAY
NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
..BROYLES..07/17/10
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...FSD...OAX...MPX...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC017-023-069-075-079-083-091-187-197-170440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREMER BUTLER FRANKLIN
GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN
HUMBOLDT WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 482
VALID 170140Z - 170240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW ALO TO
20 NNE DNS TO 15 SSW FRM TO 25 ESE RST TO 35 NW LNR.
..BROYLES..07/17/10
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...FSD...OAX...MPX...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC005-017-023-025-033-037-043-063-065-067-069-075-079-081-083-
089-091-109-131-147-151-161-187-189-191-195-197-170240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE BREMER BUTLER
CALHOUN CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW
CLAYTON EMMET FAYETTE
FLOYD FRANKLIN GRUNDY
HAMILTON HANCOCK HARDIN
HOWARD HUMBOLDT KOSSUTH
MITCHELL PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS
SAC WEBSTER WINNEBAGO
WINNESHIEK WORTH WRIGHT
$$
MNC045-099-170240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FILLMORE MOWER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 482
VALID 170100Z - 170240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE SDA
TO 20 SSW SLB TO 25 SSW FRM TO 25 ESE RST TO 30 SE LSE.
..BROYLES..07/17/10
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...FSD...OAX...MPX...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-005-009-015-017-023-025-027-029-033-037-043-047-049-063-
065-067-069-073-075-077-079-081-083-089-091-109-131-147-151-161-
169-187-189-191-195-197-170240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALLAMAKEE AUDUBON
BOONE BREMER BUTLER
CALHOUN CARROLL CASS
CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW CLAYTON
CRAWFORD DALLAS EMMET
FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN
GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE
HAMILTON HANCOCK HARDIN
HOWARD HUMBOLDT KOSSUTH
MITCHELL PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS
SAC STORY WEBSTER
WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WORTH
WRIGHT
$$
MNC045-099-170240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FILLMORE MOWER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 482
VALID 162325Z - 170040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/16/10
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...FSD...OAX...MPX...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-005-009-015-017-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-043-
047-049-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-089-091-093-
109-129-131-133-141-147-149-151-155-161-165-169-187-189-191-193-
195-197-170040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALLAMAKEE AUDUBON
BOONE BREMER BUENA VISTA
BUTLER CALHOUN CARROLL
CASS CERRO GORDO CHEROKEE
CHICKASAW CLAY CLAYTON
CRAWFORD DALLAS EMMET
FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN
GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE
HAMILTON HANCOCK HARDIN
HARRISON HOWARD HUMBOLDT
IDA KOSSUTH MILLS
MITCHELL MONONA O'BRIEN
PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS
POTTAWATTAMIE SAC SHELBY
STORY WEBSTER WINNEBAGO
WINNESHIEK WOODBURY WORTH
WRIGHT
$$
MNC039-043-045-047-055-099-109-147-169-170040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DODGE FARIBAULT FILLMORE
FREEBORN HOUSTON MOWER
OLMSTED STEELE WINONA
$$
NEC001-011-021-023-025-035-037-039-043-053-055-059-067-079-081-
093-095-097-109-119-121-125-127-129-131-133-141-143-147-151-153-
155-159-167-169-173-177-179-185-170040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOONE BURT
BUTLER CASS CLAY
COLFAX CUMING DAKOTA
DODGE DOUGLAS FILLMORE
GAGE HALL HAMILTON
HOWARD JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LANCASTER MADISON MERRICK
NANCE NEMAHA NUCKOLLS
OTOE PAWNEE PLATTE
POLK RICHARDSON SALINE
SARPY SAUNDERS SEWARD
STANTON THAYER THURSTON
WASHINGTON WAYNE YORK
$$
WIC023-057-063-081-103-123-170040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD JUNEAU LA CROSSE
MONROE RICHLAND VERNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.