Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 81
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST OF FORT MEYERS
FLORIDA TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF AVON PARK FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 80. WATCH NUMBER 80 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1245
PM EDT.
DISCUSSION...AN ONGOING QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX OF STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOS...WILL CONTINUE
TO QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT OTHERWISE
GRADUALLY REFOCUSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
ALONG AN EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR AND
THE ONGOING STORM MODE WILL FAVOR BOTH SUPERCELLS/BOWS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26045.
...GUYER/IMY
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 81 TORNADO FL CW 311645Z - 010000Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50E FMY/FORT MEYERS FL/ - 50NNW AGR/AVON PARK FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /43E FMY - 21SW ORL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26045.
REPLACES WW 80..FL CW
LAT...LON 26568219 28308280 28308048 26567993
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 81 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 81
VALID 312335Z - 010000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE TO 20 SE
ORL.
WW 81 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010000Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 324
..GARNER..03/31/11
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...MFL...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC009-015-027-043-049-051-055-057-061-071-081-085-093-097-099-
103-105-111-115-010000-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD CHARLOTTE DESOTO
GLADES HARDEE HENDRY
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER
LEE MANATEE MARTIN
OKEECHOBEE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH
PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE
SARASOTA
$$
AMZ552-555-610-650-GMZ830-853-856-010000-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM
LAKE OKEECHOBEE
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 81
VALID 312250Z - 312340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 N PIE TO
15 SSE ORL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 324
..GARNER..03/31/11
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...MFL...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC009-015-027-043-049-051-055-057-061-071-081-085-093-097-099-
103-105-111-115-312340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD CHARLOTTE DESOTO
GLADES HARDEE HENDRY
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER
LEE MANATEE MARTIN
OKEECHOBEE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH
PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE
SARASOTA
$$
AMZ552-555-610-650-GMZ830-853-856-312340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM
LAKE OKEECHOBEE
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 81
VALID 312140Z - 312240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N PIE TO
25 SW ORL.
..GARNER..03/31/11
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...MFL...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC009-015-027-043-049-051-055-057-061-071-081-085-093-097-099-
103-105-111-115-312240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD CHARLOTTE DESOTO
GLADES HARDEE HENDRY
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER
LEE MANATEE MARTIN
OKEECHOBEE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH
PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE
SARASOTA
$$
AMZ552-555-610-650-GMZ830-853-856-312240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM
LAKE OKEECHOBEE
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 81
VALID 312040Z - 312140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..03/31/11
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...MFL...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC009-015-027-043-049-051-055-057-061-071-081-085-093-095-097-
099-103-105-111-115-117-312140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD CHARLOTTE DESOTO
GLADES HARDEE HENDRY
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER
LEE MANATEE MARTIN
OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PALM BEACH PINELLAS POLK
ST. LUCIE SARASOTA SEMINOLE
$$
AMZ552-555-610-650-GMZ830-853-856-312140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM
LAKE OKEECHOBEE
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 81
VALID 311950Z - 312040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..03/31/11
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...MFL...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC009-015-027-043-049-051-055-057-061-071-081-085-093-095-097-
099-103-105-111-115-117-312040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD CHARLOTTE DESOTO
GLADES HARDEE HENDRY
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER
LEE MANATEE MARTIN
OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PALM BEACH PINELLAS POLK
ST. LUCIE SARASOTA SEMINOLE
$$
AMZ552-555-610-650-GMZ830-853-856-312040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM
LAKE OKEECHOBEE
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 81
VALID 311850Z - 311940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..03/31/11
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...MFL...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC009-015-027-043-049-051-055-057-061-071-081-085-093-095-097-
099-103-105-111-115-117-311940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD CHARLOTTE DESOTO
GLADES HARDEE HENDRY
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER
LEE MANATEE MARTIN
OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PALM BEACH PINELLAS POLK
ST. LUCIE SARASOTA SEMINOLE
$$
AMZ552-555-610-650-GMZ830-853-856-311940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM
LAKE OKEECHOBEE
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 81
VALID 311735Z - 311840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..03/31/11
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...MFL...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC009-015-027-043-049-051-055-057-061-071-081-085-093-095-097-
099-103-105-111-115-117-311840-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD CHARLOTTE DESOTO
GLADES HARDEE HENDRY
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER
LEE MANATEE MARTIN
OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PALM BEACH PINELLAS POLK
ST. LUCIE SARASOTA SEMINOLE
$$
AMZ552-555-610-650-GMZ830-853-856-311840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM
LAKE OKEECHOBEE
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.