Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAINT
JOSEPH MISSOURI TO 75 MILES EAST OF JEFFERSON CITY MISSOURI. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 555...WW 556...WW
557...WW 558...WW 559...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT IN NW MO...AND W OF STL WHERE A SMALL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE FRONT. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE
ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE MLCAPE IS NEAR 5000 J/KG...AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS.
ADDITIONALLY...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-400 M2/S2 AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LATER
TONIGHT...THE DEVELOPING STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE
CLUSTERS...OR THE BOWING MCS IN ERN NEB COULD DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
650. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 560 TORNADO KS MO 262355Z - 270700Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40NW STJ/SAINT JOSEPH MO/ - 75E JEF/JEFFERSON CITY MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /35E PWE - 21SW STL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 650. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
LAT...LON 40909545 39319076 37869076 39459545
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 560 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 560
VALID 270530Z - 270640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW STL
TO 5 S COU TO 15 E SZL.
..KERR..06/27/11
ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 560
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-043-270640-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN
$$
MOC001-003-005-007-019-021-025-027-033-041-047-049-053-061-063-
075-079-081-087-089-107-113-115-117-121-129-137-139-147-163-165-
171-173-175-177-183-189-195-197-205-211-219-227-510-270640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
AUDRAIN BOONE BUCHANAN
CALDWELL CALLAWAY CARROLL
CHARITON CLAY CLINTON
COOPER DAVIESS DEKALB
GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON
HOLT HOWARD LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LINN LIVINGSTON
MACON MERCER MONROE
MONTGOMERY NODAWAY PIKE
PLATTE PUTNAM RALLS
RANDOLPH RAY ST. CHARLES
ST. LOUIS SALINE SCHUYLER
SHELBY SULLIVAN WARREN
WORTH
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 560
VALID 270350Z - 270440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW STL TO
5 SSE COU TO 20 E SZL.
..DIAL..06/27/11
ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 560
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-043-270440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN
$$
MOC001-003-005-007-019-021-025-027-033-041-047-049-053-061-063-
075-079-081-087-089-107-113-115-117-121-129-137-139-147-163-165-
171-173-175-177-183-189-195-197-205-211-219-227-510-270440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
AUDRAIN BOONE BUCHANAN
CALDWELL CALLAWAY CARROLL
CHARITON CLAY CLINTON
COOPER DAVIESS DEKALB
GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON
HOLT HOWARD LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LINN LIVINGSTON
MACON MERCER MONROE
MONTGOMERY NODAWAY PIKE
PLATTE PUTNAM RALLS
RANDOLPH RAY ST. CHARLES
ST. LOUIS SALINE SCHUYLER
SHELBY SULLIVAN WARREN
WORTH
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 560
VALID 270235Z - 270340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW FAM
TO 30 NNE VIH TO 20 WSW COU TO 25 E SZL.
..DIAL..06/27/11
ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 560
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC043-270340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DONIPHAN
$$
MOC001-003-005-007-019-021-025-027-033-041-049-053-061-063-071-
075-079-081-087-089-099-107-113-115-117-121-129-137-139-147-163-
171-173-175-177-183-189-195-197-205-211-219-227-510-270340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
AUDRAIN BOONE BUCHANAN
CALDWELL CALLAWAY CARROLL
CHARITON CLINTON COOPER
DAVIESS DEKALB FRANKLIN
GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON
HOLT HOWARD JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LINCOLN LINN
LIVINGSTON MACON MERCER
MONROE MONTGOMERY NODAWAY
PIKE PUTNAM RALLS
RANDOLPH RAY ST. CHARLES
ST. LOUIS SALINE SCHUYLER
SHELBY SULLIVAN WARREN
WORTH
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (60%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
High (70%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.