Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 675
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1010 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 130
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF GRAND FORKS NORTH DAKOTA TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
FARGO NORTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 673...WW 674...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
STRENGTH ALONG 850 MB WARM/QSTNRY FRONT LYING WSW/ESE ALONG MAIN
AXIS OF WW THROUGH EARLY SAT. DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/MAINLY GIVEN 16-17C 850 MB DEW POINTS/ AND STRENGTHENING OF SLY LLJ
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL. OTHERWISE...WRN/CNTRL ND BOW MCS
SHOULD CONTINUE MAINLY EWD. WHILE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LIKELY WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN WW AREA...POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST FOR
DMGG SFC GUSTS GIVEN HEAVY PRECIP LOADING...ELY LOW LVL FLOW...AND
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION OF LINE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 675 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 230310Z - 231000Z
AXIS..130 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50NNW GFK/GRAND FORKS ND/ - 55SW FAR/FARGO ND/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 115NM E/W /43NNW GFK - 40SW FAR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 48589475 46319491 46310036 48580044
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 675 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 675
VALID 230945Z - 231000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DTL TO
40 NE FAR TO 10 SW HCO.
WW 675 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 231000Z.
THE NRN EXTENT OF THE LINE/BOW LOCATED IN NERN WW 675 WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TOWARD A COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS...SUGGESTING IT WILL
UNDERGO FURTHER WEAKENING.
..PETERS..07/23/11
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 675
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC027-029-087-107-113-119-125-231000-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLEARWATER MAHNOMEN
NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK
RED LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 675
VALID 230840Z - 230940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW FAR
TO 40 WSW HCO.
..PETERS..07/23/11
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 675
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC027-029-087-107-113-119-125-230940-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLEARWATER MAHNOMEN
NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK
RED LAKE
$$
NDC017-035-097-099-230940-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS GRAND FORKS TRAILL
WALSH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 675
VALID 230735Z - 230840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JMS
TO 20 NNE JMS TO 45 NE DVL.
..PETERS..07/23/11
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 675
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC027-029-087-107-113-119-125-230840-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLEARWATER MAHNOMEN
NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK
RED LAKE
$$
NDC003-017-035-039-063-091-097-099-230840-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES CASS GRAND FORKS
GRIGGS NELSON STEELE
TRAILL WALSH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 675
VALID 230635Z - 230740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BIS TO
40 W JMS TO 35 NNW DVL.
..PETERS..07/23/11
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 675
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-027-029-051-057-087-107-111-113-119-125-159-230740-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER CLAY CLEARWATER
GRANT HUBBARD MAHNOMEN
NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON
POLK RED LAKE WADENA
$$
NDC003-005-017-027-031-035-039-063-071-091-093-097-099-230740-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES BENSON CASS
EDDY FOSTER GRAND FORKS
GRIGGS NELSON RAMSEY
STEELE STUTSMAN TRAILL
WALSH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 675
VALID 230545Z - 230640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E N60 TO
50 W DVL TO 60 WNW DVL.
..PETERS..07/23/11
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 675
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-027-029-051-057-087-107-111-113-119-125-159-230640-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER CLAY CLEARWATER
GRANT HUBBARD MAHNOMEN
NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON
POLK RED LAKE WADENA
$$
NDC003-005-017-027-031-035-039-063-071-091-093-097-099-103-
230640-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES BENSON CASS
EDDY FOSTER GRAND FORKS
GRIGGS NELSON RAMSEY
STEELE STUTSMAN TRAILL
WALSH WELLS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 675
VALID 230320Z - 230440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/23/11
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 675
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-027-029-051-057-087-107-111-113-119-125-159-230440-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER CLAY CLEARWATER
GRANT HUBBARD MAHNOMEN
NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON
POLK RED LAKE WADENA
$$
NDC003-005-009-017-027-031-035-039-049-063-069-071-079-091-093-
097-099-103-230440-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES BENSON BOTTINEAU
CASS EDDY FOSTER
GRAND FORKS GRIGGS MCHENRY
NELSON PIERCE RAMSEY
ROLETTE STEELE STUTSMAN
TRAILL WALSH WELLS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.