Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 11
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALABAMA
NORTHWEST GEORGIA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 245 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
ROME GEORGIA TO 90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 7...WW 8...WW 9...WW 10...
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE MERIDIAN MS AREA NEWD TO NEAR HUNTSVILLE AL.
THIS AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE SLOWLY ESE THROUGH MID MORNING...WHILE
ATTENDANT STORMS MOVE ENE ALONG IT. VERY STRONG TO INTENSE DEEP
WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH NEG TILT TROUGH NOW OVER W TN WILL
MAINTAIN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL ROTATING STORMS AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES NEWD.
LOW LVL ROTATION/TORNADO THREAT APPEARS GREATEST WHERE THE
CONFLUENCE AXIS INTERSECTS BELT OF ENHANCED LOW LVL SRH ALONG SRN
FRINGE OF DIFFUSE WEDGE BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE ATTM EXTENDS ROUGHLY
ESE FROM NEAR TCL/BHM. GIVEN INTENSITY OF LOW LVL SHEAR...THE
TORNADO THREAT MAY SPREAD NEWD INTO NW GA LATER THIS
MORNING...DESPITE MORE PRONOUNCED LAYER OF WEDGE-TYPE AIR THAT
REMAINS OVER THAT REGION ATTM.
THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE UPR
TROUGH CONTINUES NEWD...DIMINISHING BOTH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP
WIND FIELD OVER REGION.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 11 TORNADO AL GA MS 230845Z - 231600Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35SSE RMG/ROME GA/ - 90SW TCL/TUSCALOOSA AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /29WNW ATL - 7SE MEI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.
LAT...LON 32798494 31208870 33388870 34978494
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 11 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 11
VALID 231430Z - 231540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW GZH
TO 45 WSW SEM TO 15 NNW MGM TO 30 NNW AUO TO 25 SE ANB TO 20 WNW
ATL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 59
..JEWELL..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-011-013-017-035-041-047-051-081-085-087-099-101-109-
111-113-123-131-231540-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK
BUTLER CHAMBERS CONECUH
CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE
RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA
WILCOX
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 11
VALID 231330Z - 231440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PIB TO
40 SSW ANB TO 25 SE CHA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 59
..SMITH..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-011-013-017-021-025-027-029-035-037-041-047-051-081-
085-087-099-101-109-111-113-123-129-131-231440-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK
BUTLER CHAMBERS CHILTON
CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE
CONECUH COOSA CRENSHAW
DALLAS ELMORE LEE
LOWNDES MACON MONROE
MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH
RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON
WILCOX
$$
GAC015-045-115-129-143-145-149-213-233-285-231440-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTOW CARROLL FLOYD
GORDON HARALSON HARRIS
HEARD MURRAY POLK
TROUP
$$
MSC041-111-231440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREENE PERRY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 11
VALID 231245Z - 231340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE PIB
TO 40 SE BHM TO 30 SW CHA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 59
..SMITH..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-037-047-051-081-085-087-
091-099-101-105-111-121-123-129-131-231340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA CALHOUN CHAMBERS
CHEROKEE CHILTON CHOCTAW
CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE
COOSA DALLAS ELMORE
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MARENGO MONROE MONTGOMERY
PERRY RANDOLPH TALLADEGA
TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
GAC015-045-047-055-115-129-143-145-149-213-233-285-295-313-
231340-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTOW CARROLL CATOOSA
CHATTOOGA FLOYD GORDON
HARALSON HARRIS HEARD
MURRAY POLK TROUP
WALKER WHITFIELD
$$
MSC041-111-153-231340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREENE PERRY WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 11
VALID 231140Z - 231240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MEI TO
20 ENE BHM TO 40 SW CHA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 56.
..EDWARDS..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-037-047-051-055-065-
081-085-087-091-099-101-105-111-115-117-119-121-123-129-131-
231240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB CALHOUN
CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON
CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY
CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS
ELMORE ETOWAH HALE
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MARENGO MONROE MONTGOMERY
PERRY RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA
TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
GAC015-045-047-055-083-115-129-143-145-149-213-233-285-295-313-
231240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTOW CARROLL CATOOSA
CHATTOOGA DADE FLOYD
GORDON HARALSON HARRIS
HEARD MURRAY POLK
TROUP WALKER WHITFIELD
$$
MSC041-111-153-231240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREENE PERRY WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 11
VALID 231055Z - 231140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 S MEI TO
45 NW BHM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 56
..SMITH..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-009-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-037-047-051-055-
063-065-073-081-085-087-091-101-105-111-115-117-119-121-123-125-
127-131-231140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT
CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE
CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE
CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA
DALLAS ELMORE ETOWAH
GREENE HALE JEFFERSON
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MARENGO MONTGOMERY PERRY
RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY
SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA
TUSCALOOSA WALKER WILCOX
$$
GAC015-045-047-055-083-115-129-143-145-149-213-233-285-295-313-
231140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTOW CARROLL CATOOSA
CHATTOOGA DADE FLOYD
GORDON HARALSON HARRIS
HEARD MURRAY POLK
TROUP WALKER WHITFIELD
$$
MSC153-231140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 11
VALID 230940Z - 231040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-009-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-037-047-051-055-
063-065-073-081-085-087-091-101-105-107-111-115-117-119-121-123-
125-127-131-231040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT
CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE
CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE
CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA
DALLAS ELMORE ETOWAH
GREENE HALE JEFFERSON
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MARENGO MONTGOMERY PERRY
PICKENS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA
TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER
WILCOX
$$
GAC015-047-055-083-115-129-143-213-233-295-313-231040-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA
DADE FLOYD GORDON
HARALSON MURRAY POLK
WALKER WHITFIELD
$$
MSC153-231040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.