Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 542
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 125 AM UNTIL 700 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
MONTGOMERY ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...DEVELOPING MCS SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHILE
MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AL. THE DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE SHORT TERM NEAR AND W-NW OF BHM...AS STORMS MERGE
WITH A SEPARATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE S. THE
LONGER-TERM SEVERE THREAT IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
INFLUENCE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE RATHER
SHALLOW AND A FEED OF MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE W SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE STORMS JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW OUTFLOW THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32035.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 542 SEVERE TSTM AL 310625Z - 311200Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20NNW BHM/BIRMINGHAM AL/ - 10SSE MGM/MONTGOMERY AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /10N VUZ - 4S MGM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32035.
LAT...LON 33838575 32158522 32158744 33838801
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 542 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 542
VALID 310935Z - 311040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/31/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 542
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-011-017-021-027-037-047-051-057-065-073-081-085-087-
101-105-111-113-115-117-121-123-125-127-311040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB BULLOCK
CHAMBERS CHILTON CLAY
COOSA DALLAS ELMORE
FAYETTE HALE JEFFERSON
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MONTGOMERY PERRY RANDOLPH
RUSSELL ST. CLAIR SHELBY
TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA
WALKER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 542
VALID 310850Z - 310940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/31/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 542
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-011-017-021-027-037-047-051-057-065-073-081-085-087-
101-105-111-113-115-117-121-123-125-127-310940-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB BULLOCK
CHAMBERS CHILTON CLAY
COOSA DALLAS ELMORE
FAYETTE HALE JEFFERSON
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MONTGOMERY PERRY RANDOLPH
RUSSELL ST. CLAIR SHELBY
TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA
WALKER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 542
VALID 310735Z - 310840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/31/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 542
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-011-017-021-027-037-047-051-057-065-073-081-085-087-
101-105-111-113-115-117-121-123-125-127-310840-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB BULLOCK
CHAMBERS CHILTON CLAY
COOSA DALLAS ELMORE
FAYETTE HALE JEFFERSON
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MONTGOMERY PERRY RANDOLPH
RUSSELL ST. CLAIR SHELBY
TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA
WALKER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.