Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
LAKE MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1135 PM
UNTIL 400 AM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SOUTH BEND INDIANA TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE
INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 376...WW 377...WW
378...WW 379...WW 380...
DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG DEEP
LAYER WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN INDIANA AND SRN MICHIGAN.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 29045.
...DIAL
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 381 SEVERE TSTM IN MI LM 010335Z - 010800Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NE SBN/SOUTH BEND IN/ - 35ESE LAF/LAFAYETTE IN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /26SE PMM - 25N IND/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29045.
LAT...LON 42158462 40228526 40228736 42158676
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 381 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 381
VALID 010555Z - 010640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE DNV
TO 45 NE LAF TO 35 NW FWA TO 15 NNE AZO.
..BROYLES..07/01/14
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 381
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-015-023-033-053-067-069-075-087-113-151-157-159-
169-171-179-183-010640-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
CARROLL CLINTON DE KALB
GRANT HOWARD HUNTINGTON
JAY LAGRANGE NOBLE
STEUBEN TIPPECANOE TIPTON
WABASH WARREN WELLS
WHITLEY
$$
MIC023-149-010640-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANCH ST. JOSEPH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 381
VALID 010445Z - 010540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..07/01/14
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 381
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC003-009-015-017-023-033-039-049-053-067-069-085-087-091-099-
103-113-131-141-149-151-157-159-169-171-179-181-183-010540-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BLACKFORD CARROLL
CASS CLINTON DE KALB
ELKHART FULTON GRANT
HOWARD HUNTINGTON KOSCIUSKO
LAGRANGE LA PORTE MARSHALL
MIAMI NOBLE PULASKI
ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN
TIPPECANOE TIPTON WABASH
WARREN WELLS WHITE
WHITLEY
$$
MIC021-023-027-149-010540-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN BRANCH CASS
ST. JOSEPH
$$
LMZ043-010540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.