Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO
WESTERN NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST WYOMING
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
800 PM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NE CO...WITH STORMS SPREADING INTO SE WY AND WRN NEB THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
TORRINGTON WYOMING TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MULLEN
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 172 TORNADO CO NE WY 151900Z - 160200Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50SSW TOR/TORRINGTON WY/ - 35SSE MHN/MULLEN NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /16NE CYS - 27N LBF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21025.
LAT...LON 42540451 42740080 40410080 40220451
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 172 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 172
VALID 160135Z - 160240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW GLD
TO 25 ESE SNY TO 20 N SNY TO 20 N CDR.
..GLEASON..05/16/15
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 172
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC095-115-160240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
$$
NEC005-013-029-031-045-049-057-069-075-091-101-111-113-117-123-
135-161-171-160240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BOX BUTTE CHASE
CHERRY DAWES DEUEL
DUNDY GARDEN GRANT
HOOKER KEITH LINCOLN
LOGAN MCPHERSON MORRILL
PERKINS SHERIDAN THOMAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 172
VALID 160050Z - 160140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE DEN
TO 30 WNW SNY TO 30 NNE BFF TO 35 WNW CDR.
..GLEASON..05/16/15
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 172
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-087-095-115-121-123-125-160140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD
YUMA
$$
NEC005-007-013-029-031-033-045-049-057-069-075-091-101-105-111-
113-117-123-135-157-161-165-171-160140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE
CHASE CHERRY CHEYENNE
DAWES DEUEL DUNDY
GARDEN GRANT HOOKER
KEITH KIMBALL LINCOLN
LOGAN MCPHERSON MORRILL
PERKINS SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN
SIOUX THOMAS
$$
WYC015-021-160140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN LARAMIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 172
VALID 152340Z - 160040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE DEN TO
45 E CYS TO 15 S TOR TO 30 W TOR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 651
..GLEASON..05/15/15
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 172
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-087-095-115-121-123-125-160040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD
YUMA
$$
NEC005-007-013-029-031-033-045-049-057-069-075-091-101-105-111-
113-117-123-135-157-161-165-171-160040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE
CHASE CHERRY CHEYENNE
DAWES DEUEL DUNDY
GARDEN GRANT HOOKER
KEITH KIMBALL LINCOLN
LOGAN MCPHERSON MORRILL
PERKINS SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN
SIOUX THOMAS
$$
WYC015-021-160040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN LARAMIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 172
VALID 152300Z - 160040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GLEASON..05/15/15
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 172
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-087-095-115-121-123-125-160040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD
YUMA
$$
NEC005-007-013-029-031-033-045-049-057-069-075-091-101-105-111-
113-117-123-135-157-161-165-171-160040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE
CHASE CHERRY CHEYENNE
DAWES DEUEL DUNDY
GARDEN GRANT HOOKER
KEITH KIMBALL LINCOLN
LOGAN MCPHERSON MORRILL
PERKINS SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN
SIOUX THOMAS
$$
WYC015-021-160040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN LARAMIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 172
VALID 152145Z - 152240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GLEASON..05/15/15
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 172
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-087-095-115-121-123-125-152240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD
YUMA
$$
NEC005-007-013-029-031-033-045-049-057-069-075-091-101-105-111-
113-117-123-135-157-161-165-171-152240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE
CHASE CHERRY CHEYENNE
DAWES DEUEL DUNDY
GARDEN GRANT HOOKER
KEITH KIMBALL LINCOLN
LOGAN MCPHERSON MORRILL
PERKINS SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN
SIOUX THOMAS
$$
WYC015-021-152240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN LARAMIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.