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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 333
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE AND A
TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A WARM
FRONT.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF BENTON HARBOR MICHIGAN TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST
OF MOUNT CLEMENS MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 332...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...GUYER
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 333 SEVERE TSTM MI LE LH LM 221725Z - 230100Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40NNW BEH/BENTON HARBOR MI/ - 30NNE MTC/MOUNT CLEMENS MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /30WNW PMM - 16SSE ECK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
LAT...LON 43688673 44008259 41998259 41658673
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 333 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 333
VALID 222100Z - 222240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ARB TO
20 NE BAX.
..GUYER..06/22/15
ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC005-015-017-025-035-037-045-049-057-063-065-067-073-075-077-
081-087-091-093-099-107-111-115-117-121-123-125-127-133-139-145-
147-151-155-157-159-161-163-222240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BAY
CALHOUN CLARE CLINTON
EATON GENESEE GRATIOT
HURON INGHAM IONIA
ISABELLA JACKSON KALAMAZOO
KENT LAPEER LENAWEE
LIVINGSTON MACOMB MECOSTA
MIDLAND MONROE MONTCALM
MUSKEGON NEWAYGO OAKLAND
OCEANA OSCEOLA OTTAWA
SAGINAW ST. CLAIR SANILAC
SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA VAN BUREN
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464-LMZ844-
845-846-847-872-874-876-878-222240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 333
VALID 221835Z - 221940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..06/22/15
ATTN...WFO...GRR...APX...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC005-011-015-017-025-035-037-045-049-051-057-063-065-067-073-
075-077-081-087-091-093-099-107-111-115-117-121-123-125-127-133-
139-145-147-151-155-157-159-161-163-221940-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN ARENAC BARRY
BAY CALHOUN CLARE
CLINTON EATON GENESEE
GLADWIN GRATIOT HURON
INGHAM IONIA ISABELLA
JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT
LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON
MACOMB MECOSTA MIDLAND
MONROE MONTCALM MUSKEGON
NEWAYGO OAKLAND OCEANA
OSCEOLA OTTAWA SAGINAW
ST. CLAIR SANILAC SHIAWASSEE
TUSCOLA VAN BUREN WASHTENAW
WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464-LMZ844-
845-846-847-872-874-876-878-221940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
