Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
830 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 830 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF SE-MOVING COLD FRONT NOW OVER NE AND E
CENTRAL IOWA. AT THE SAME TIME...WESTERN END OF LOWER MI SQUALL LINE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESE. SUPERCELLS AND BOWS WITHIN THE SQUALL
LINE...AND MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS NEAR THE COLD FRONT...WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...A FEW SWATHS OF DAMAGING
WIND...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO IN WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 175
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BENTON HARBOR MICHIGAN TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARSEILLES
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 462...WW 463...WW 464...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 465 SEVERE TSTM IA IL IN MI OH LM 030130Z - 030700Z
AXIS..175 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NW BEH/BENTON HARBOR MI/ - 25SW MMO/MARSEILLES IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 150NM E/W /39W PMM - 26E BDF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.
LAT...LON 42498355 41068566 41069237 42499041
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 465 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 465
VALID 030630Z - 030700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MMO
TO 40 E MMO TO 15 S VPZ TO 30 SSE VPZ.
WW 465 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 030700Z.
..COHEN..08/03/15
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...IWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC075-091-030700-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
IROQUOIS KANKAKEE
$$
INC007-073-089-111-030700-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON JASPER LAKE
NEWTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 465
VALID 030555Z - 030640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MMO TO
30 ENE MMO TO 25 NNE FWA.
..COHEN..08/03/15
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...IWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC063-075-091-197-030640-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANKAKEE
WILL
$$
INC003-007-049-073-085-089-099-111-127-131-149-183-030640-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BENTON FULTON
JASPER KOSCIUSKO LAKE
MARSHALL NEWTON PORTER
PULASKI STARKE WHITLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 465
VALID 030430Z - 030540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW MMO TO
15 SSE RFD TO 15 SSW JXN TO 20 WSW ARB.
..KERR..08/03/15
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...IWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC031-037-043-063-089-091-093-099-103-141-197-030540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COOK DE KALB DUPAGE
GRUNDY KANE KANKAKEE
KENDALL LA SALLE LEE
OGLE WILL
$$
INC033-039-085-087-089-091-099-113-127-141-149-151-030540-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DE KALB ELKHART KOSCIUSKO
LAGRANGE LAKE LA PORTE
MARSHALL NOBLE PORTER
ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN
$$
MIC021-023-027-059-149-030540-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN BRANCH CASS
HILLSDALE ST. JOSEPH
$$
OHC039-051-069-171-030540-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DEFIANCE FULTON HENRY
WILLIAMS
$$
LMZ043-046-080-741-742-743-744-745-777-779-030540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID-LINE OF LAKE.
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN
BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 465
VALID 030340Z - 030440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW MMO TO
5 S RFD TO 35 ESE RAC.
..KERR..08/03/15
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...IWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-031-037-043-063-071-073-089-091-093-095-097-099-
103-111-123-131-141-155-161-175-177-187-195-197-201-030440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
COOK DE KALB DUPAGE
GRUNDY HENDERSON HENRY
KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL
KNOX LAKE LA SALLE
LEE MCHENRY MARSHALL
MERCER OGLE PUTNAM
ROCK ISLAND STARK STEPHENSON
WARREN WHITESIDE WILL
WINNEBAGO
$$
INC033-039-085-087-089-091-099-113-127-141-149-151-030440-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DE KALB ELKHART KOSCIUSKO
LAGRANGE LAKE LA PORTE
MARSHALL NOBLE PORTER
ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN
$$
IAC045-057-115-139-163-030440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLINTON DES MOINES LOUISA
MUSCATINE SCOTT
$$
MIC021-023-027-059-149-030440-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN BRANCH CASS
HILLSDALE ST. JOSEPH
$$
OHC039-051-069-171-030440-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DEFIANCE FULTON HENRY
WILLIAMS
$$
LMZ043-046-080-740-741-742-743-744-745-777-779-030440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID-LINE OF LAKE.
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN
BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 465
VALID 030230Z - 030340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW BRL
TO 40 W JVL.
..MARSH..08/03/15
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...IWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-031-037-043-063-071-073-089-091-093-095-097-099-
103-111-123-131-141-155-161-175-177-187-195-197-201-030340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
COOK DE KALB DUPAGE
GRUNDY HENDERSON HENRY
KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL
KNOX LAKE LA SALLE
LEE MCHENRY MARSHALL
MERCER OGLE PUTNAM
ROCK ISLAND STARK STEPHENSON
WARREN WHITESIDE WILL
WINNEBAGO
$$
INC033-039-085-087-089-091-099-113-127-141-149-151-030340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DE KALB ELKHART KOSCIUSKO
LAGRANGE LAKE LA PORTE
MARSHALL NOBLE PORTER
ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN
$$
IAC045-057-115-139-163-030340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLINTON DES MOINES LOUISA
MUSCATINE SCOTT
$$
MIC021-023-027-059-149-030340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN BRANCH CASS
HILLSDALE ST. JOSEPH
$$
OHC039-051-069-171-030340-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DEFIANCE FULTON HENRY
WILLIAMS
$$
LMZ043-046-080-740-741-742-743-744-745-777-779-030340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID-LINE OF LAKE.
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN
BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.